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GFL logo

GFL Environmental Inc.TSX:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap CA$22.3b
Share Price
CA$63.60
My Fair Value
n/a
1Y-0.08%
7D4.4%
Portfolio Value
​
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GFL Environmental Inc.

TSX:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$22.3b

GFL Environmental (GFL) Stock Overview

Provides non-hazardous solid waste management and environmental services in Canada and the United States. More details

GFL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health1/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 7.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 44.9% per year for the next 3 years

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results


GFL Community Fair Values

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See what 21 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

GFL logo
GFL Environmental

Urbanization And Recycling Trends Will Advance Sustainable Waste Solutions

Key Takeaways Accelerated investments and M&A activity are driving earlier-than-expected margin accretion, higher cash flow, and substantial revenue growth well above industry forecasts. Strategic focus on growth markets, regulatory tailwinds, and operational innovation are strengthening recurring revenue, pricing power, and sustainable long-term earnings expansion.
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CA$89
FV
28.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
3.11%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
GFL logo
GFL Environmental

GFL: Index Addition And Infrastructure Deal Will Support Margin Expansion

Key Takeaways Strategic focus on durable price-cost spread, sustainability investments, and M&A activity aims to drive margin and revenue growth, enhancing shareholder value. Balance sheet improvements and operational efficiencies are set to optimize platform operations and strengthen earnings per share.
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CA$75.53
FV
15.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
-0.27%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
13users have followed this narrative
GFL logo
GFL Environmental

Circular Economy Mandates And Rising Debt Will Erode Cash Flows

Key Takeaways Rapid regulatory change and new recycling technologies threaten core revenue streams and weaken GFL's pricing power and market share over time. Heavy reliance on acquisitions and geographic concentration increase vulnerability to economic, interest rate, and regulatory pressures, squeezing growth and profitability.
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CA$58
FV
9.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
-2.78%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
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GFL Environmental Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for GFL Environmental
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$63.60
52 Week HighCA$71.82
52 Week LowCA$59.24
Beta0.59
1 Month Change0.51%
3 Month Change-9.14%
1 Year Change-0.079%
3 Year Change67.50%
5 Year Change88.44%
Change since IPO183.93%

Recent News & Updates

GFL Environmental Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nov 12
GFL Environmental Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Oct 28
We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Recent updates

GFL Environmental Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nov 12
GFL Environmental Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Oct 28
We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

At CA$65.31, Is It Time To Put GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) On Your Watch List?

Sep 13
At CA$65.31, Is It Time To Put GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) On Your Watch List?

There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of GFL Environmental's (TSE:GFL) Earnings

Aug 08
There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of GFL Environmental's (TSE:GFL) Earnings

Revenues Not Telling The Story For GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)

Jul 23
Revenues Not Telling The Story For GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)

Is GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) A Risky Investment?

Jul 07
Is GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) A Risky Investment?

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Jun 22
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

We Think Some Shareholders May Hesitate To Increase GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) CEO Compensation

May 07
We Think Some Shareholders May Hesitate To Increase GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) CEO Compensation

These 4 Measures Indicate That GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Mar 20
These 4 Measures Indicate That GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Mar 03
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

What Does GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) Share Price Indicate?

Feb 18
What Does GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) Share Price Indicate?

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)

Jan 12
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Dec 21
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
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Renewable Strategies And Tactical Divestitures Propel Growth And Financial Resilience

GFL's strategy of focusing on recycling and renewable natural gas is driving revenue and earnings growth through disciplined pricing and operational efficiencies.

Shareholder Returns

GFLCA Commercial ServicesCA Market
7D4.4%0.4%-1.2%
1Y-0.08%6.9%18.2%

Return vs Industry: GFL underperformed the Canadian Commercial Services industry which returned 6.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GFL underperformed the Canadian Market which returned 18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GFL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GFL volatility
GFL Average Weekly Movement2.7%
Commercial Services Industry Average Movement5.5%
Market Average Movement10.1%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market19.5%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: GFL has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Canadian market.

Volatility Over Time: GFL's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200715,000Patrick Dovigigflenv.com

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management and environmental services in Canada and the United States. The company operates through Solid Waste and Environmental Services segments. It offers hauling, landfill, transfer, and material recovery facilities; and liquid waste management and soil remediation services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

GFL Environmental Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do GFL Environmental's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GFL fundamental statistics
Market capCA$22.31b
Earnings (TTM)CA$85.50m
Revenue (TTM)CA$8.22b
267.1x
P/E Ratio
2.8x
P/S Ratio

Is GFL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
GFL income statement (TTM)
RevenueCA$8.22b
Cost of RevenueCA$6.53b
Gross ProfitCA$1.70b
Other ExpensesCA$1.61b
EarningsCA$85.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.24
Gross Margin20.65%
Net Profit Margin1.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio94.2%

How did GFL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.1%
Current Dividend Yield
11%
Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/11/18 09:29
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/18 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 31 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Capital Markets
Moses SuttonBarclays
Moses SuttonBarclays