GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were in line with expectations, at CA$7.9b, while statutory losses ballooned to CA$2.11 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for GFL Environmental

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from GFL Environmental's eleven analysts is for revenues of CA$8.43b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. GFL Environmental is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CA$0.32 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$8.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.44 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at CA$68.65, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic GFL Environmental analyst has a price target of CA$86.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$39.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that GFL Environmental's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.2% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that GFL Environmental is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GFL Environmental. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple GFL Environmental analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether GFL Environmental's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.