GFL Environmental Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
GFL Environmental has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 27.4%, while the Commercial Services industry saw earnings growing at 12.2% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 5.7% per year. GFL Environmental's return on equity is 3.2%, and it has net margins of 3.1%.
Key information
27.42%
Earnings growth rate
28.60%
EPS growth rate
| Commercial Services Industry Growth | 7.30% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.71% |
| Return on equity | 3.16% |
| Net Margin | 3.14% |
| Next Earnings Update | 29 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 06
GFL: Take Private Interest And SECURE Deal Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target on GFL Environmental to CA$90 to reflect updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What’s in the News for GFL Environmental GFL Environmental is exploring a potential take private transaction after initial approaches from private equity and buyout firms.
Narrative Update • Jun 22
GFL: Energy Transition Projects And Acquisition Strategy Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GFL Environmental slightly, to CA$70.55 from CA$70.73, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. What’s in the News for GFL Environmental GFL Environmental CEO Patrick Dovigi discussed the planned $4.6b acquisition of Secure Waste Services, which is targeted to close by October 1 and is expected to significantly expand the business, source: recent CEO interview.
Narrative Update • Jun 05
GFL: Acquisitions And RNG Projects Will Support Steady Fair Value Outlook
Analysts have maintained their CA$55.00 price target on GFL Environmental, citing only minor adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E forecasts that leave their overall valuation view broadly unchanged. What's in the News RWT Capital completed the sale of Alberta based H2Oil Energy to GFL Environmental Services, expanding GFL Environmental's footprint in Western Canada and giving H2Oil customers access to one of the largest environmental and waste management companies in North America (source: RWT Capital Corp).Narrative Update • May 22
GFL: Buybacks And Dividend Increase Will Support Steady Fair Value Outlook
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for GFL Environmental from CA$60.00 to CA$55.00, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E levels. What's in the News GFL updated its full year 2026 earnings guidance to reflect acquisitions completed through April 1, 2026.Narrative Update • May 04
GFL: Dividend Growth And Large Buyback Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target for GFL Environmental by CA$1 to CA$70.73, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly higher expected revenue growth, a lower profit margin, a higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News GFL updated its full year 2026 earnings guidance to reflect acquisitions completed through April 1, 2026.Narrative Update • Apr 20
GFL: Share Repurchases And Dividend Aristocrat Status Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on GFL Environmental by CA$1 to CA$86, citing updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, a lower profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E multiple in their models. What's in the News Reports indicate GFL Environmental is nearing a deal to acquire SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp.Narrative Update • Apr 06
GFL: Dividends And Buybacks Will Support Steady Fair Value Outlook
Analysts have made only minor adjustments to their view on GFL Environmental, keeping the fair value price target steady at CA$60.00. Small changes in discount rate, revenue growth and profit margin assumptions offset one another, alongside a slightly lower future P/E input.Narrative Update • Mar 22
GFL: Share Repurchases And Profit Outlook Will Support Fair Value View
Analysts have adjusted their price target on GFL Environmental to CA$60.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a revised future P/E estimate as key drivers of the change. What's in the News The Board of Directors authorized a new share buyback plan on February 27, 2026, signaling continued use of repurchases as a capital management tool (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 08
GFL: Share Repurchases And Dividend Aristocrat Status Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GFL Environmental from CA$89.00 to CA$87.00 as they balance a higher discount rate and lower profit margin assumptions against stronger projected revenue growth and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News GFL Environmental announced a normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 34,657,586 subordinate voting shares, equal to 10% of its 346,575,862 issued and outstanding subordinate voting shares, with the bid set to expire on March 2, 2027 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 22
GFL: Dividend Aristocrat Status And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on GFL Environmental to CA$71.73 from CA$75.30, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News GFL Environmental issued earnings guidance for 2026, with revenue estimated at approximately $7,000m, or $7,140m on a constant currency basis, and the guidance description references an 8% change (Corporate guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 07
GFL: Fair View Will Balance Dividend Index Inclusion And Equity Offering
Analysts have maintained their price target for GFL Environmental at $60.00. The update primarily reflects refreshed assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E rather than a change in their headline valuation view.Narrative Update • Jan 24
GFL: Fair Value View Will Balance Share Offering And Margin Reset
Analysts now place their fair value estimate for GFL Environmental at $60.00, up from $58.00, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and a much higher forward P/E multiple in their models. What's in the News GFL Environmental filed a follow on equity offering of 16,611,295 Subordinate Voting Shares, classified as common stock.Narrative Update • Jan 07
GFL: Future M&A Pipeline Will Support Upside From Recent Equity Raise
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for GFL Environmental to about $75.30 from $75.53, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News GFL Environmental completed a follow on equity offering of 16,611,295 Subordinate Voting Shares at $45.15 per share, with a discount of $0.22 per share, raising about $750m in gross proceeds (Follow on Equity Offering).Analysis Article • Nov 12
GFL Environmental Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
GFL Environmental Inc. ( TSE:GFL ) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for...Narrative Update • Nov 01
GFL: Index Addition And Infrastructure Deal Will Support Margin Expansion
Analysts have revised their price target for GFL Environmental to $75.53. They are maintaining stability in their outlook while noting improvements in profit margin forecasts, despite slightly lower revenue growth expectations.Analysis Article • Oct 28
We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Narrative Update • Oct 17
Investments In Sustainability And M&A Will Drive Future Margin Expansion
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for GFL Environmental, lowering it by $0.25 as they weigh a marginally higher discount rate and improved profit margin, while also considering weaker revenue growth expectations and a decrease in the projected future price-to-earnings ratio. What's in the News GFL Environmental Inc.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Investments In Sustainability And M&A Will Drive Future Margin Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target for GFL Environmental from $71.93 to $75.78. They cite improved revenue growth prospects and minor shifts in profit expectations as the reasons for this change.Analysis Article • Sep 13
At CA$65.31, Is It Time To Put GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) On Your Watch List?
Today we're going to take a look at the well-established GFL Environmental Inc. ( TSE:GFL ). The company's stock saw...Analysis Article • Aug 08
There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of GFL Environmental's (TSE:GFL) Earnings
TSX:GFL 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore GFL Environmental's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Analysis Article • Jul 23
Revenues Not Telling The Story For GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)
When close to half the companies in the Commercial Services industry in Canada have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How GFL Environmental makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 6,700 | 211 | 958 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 6,616 | 211 | 967 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 6,501 | -74 | 925 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 6,361 | -156 | 922 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 6,267 | -973 | 898 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 6,139 | -963 | 865 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 6,450 | -824 | 890 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 6,786 | -846 | 910 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 7,148 | -20 | 924 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 7,516 | -47 | 896 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 7,454 | -130 | 803 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 7,395 | -333 | 765 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 7,159 | -543 | 727 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 6,761 | -184 | 675 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 6,380 | -120 | 632 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 5,930 | -246 | 586 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 5,438 | -266 | 535 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 5,137 | -681 | 499 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 4,933 | -1,193 | 479 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 4,587 | -978 | 439 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 4,365 | -1,135 | 419 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 4,196 | -1,116 | 448 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 3,857 | -689 | 440 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 3,719 | -684 | 426 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 3,557 | -636 | 401 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 3,347 | -452 | 331 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 3,068 | -450 | 277 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 2,621 | -392 | 245 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 2,242 | -520 | 235 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 1,853 | -483 | 198 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 1,333 | -101 | 136 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 934 | -152 | 105 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: GFL has a large one-off gain of CA$255.7M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st March, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: GFL became profitable in the past.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: GFL has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 27.4% per year.
Accelerating Growth: GFL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: GFL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Commercial Services industry (9.6%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: GFL's Return on Equity (3.2%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/10 12:49 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Murray | ATB Cormark |
| William Grippin | Barclays |
| Moses Sutton | Barclays |