GFL Environmental Inc.

TSX:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$25.3b

GFL Environmental Valuation

Is GFL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFL (CA$64.39) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$78.82)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFL?

Key metric: As GFL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GFL. This is calculated by dividing GFL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GFL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.3x
SalesCA$7.76b
Market CapCA$25.33b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GFL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GFL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.2x
EFN Element Fleet Management
5x-7.6%CA$11.7b
BYD Boyd Group Services
1.1x8.4%CA$4.6b
ANRG Anaergia
1.3x17.4%CA$147.3m
KUT RediShred Capital
1.3x8.0%CA$89.3m
GFL GFL Environmental
3.3x6.3%CA$25.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (2.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GFL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Commercial Services Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDI GDI Integrated Facility Services
0.4x2.8%US$622.46m
DCM DATA Communications Management
0.2x4.0%US$80.36m
VTX Vertex Resource Group
0.1x4.2%US$19.52m
INQ Inscape
0.02xn/aUS$530.42k
No more companies available in this PS range
GFL 3.3xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies5PS01.63.24.86.48+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the Canadian Commercial Services industry average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.3x
Fair PS Ratio2.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$64.39
CA$66.86
+3.8%
19.5%CA$85.00CA$39.50n/a11
Dec ’25CA$66.41
CA$65.32
-1.6%
17.9%CA$76.00CA$39.50n/a11
Nov ’25CA$58.05
CA$58.95
+1.6%
17.8%CA$70.00CA$39.50n/a11
Oct ’25CA$53.60
CA$57.05
+6.4%
17.3%CA$70.00CA$39.50n/a10
Sep ’25CA$58.40
CA$57.25
-2.0%
16.8%CA$70.00CA$39.50n/a10
Aug ’25CA$55.60
CA$59.15
+6.4%
15.8%CA$70.00CA$39.50n/a10
Jul ’25CA$53.28
CA$55.75
+4.6%
16.2%CA$70.00CA$39.50n/a10
Jun ’25CA$42.91
CA$54.45
+26.9%
14.1%CA$66.00CA$39.50n/a10
May ’25CA$43.78
CA$53.95
+23.2%
12.5%CA$63.00CA$39.50n/a11
Apr ’25CA$46.87
CA$53.23
+13.6%
14.2%CA$63.00CA$39.50n/a11
Mar ’25CA$48.16
CA$51.63
+7.2%
17.4%CA$63.00CA$34.00n/a12
Feb ’25CA$46.89
CA$48.88
+4.2%
18.3%CA$60.00CA$30.00n/a12
Jan ’25CA$45.71
CA$48.54
+6.2%
18.3%CA$60.00CA$30.00n/a12
Dec ’24CA$39.92
CA$48.38
+21.2%
18.1%CA$60.00CA$30.00CA$66.4112
Nov ’24CA$40.08
CA$51.23
+27.8%
14.6%CA$60.00CA$36.00CA$58.0511
Oct ’24CA$43.13
CA$54.06
+25.3%
10.7%CA$60.00CA$39.50CA$53.609
Sep ’24CA$44.15
CA$54.06
+22.4%
10.7%CA$60.00CA$39.50CA$58.409
Aug ’24CA$45.35
CA$54.17
+19.4%
10.8%CA$60.00CA$39.50CA$55.609
Jul ’24CA$51.44
CA$54.50
+5.9%
13.1%CA$62.00CA$36.50CA$53.289
Jun ’24CA$49.63
CA$53.94
+8.7%
13.8%CA$62.00CA$36.50CA$42.918
May ’24CA$49.63
CA$53.19
+7.2%
13.7%CA$62.00CA$36.50CA$43.788
Apr ’24CA$46.60
CA$48.56
+4.2%
15.2%CA$58.00CA$31.50CA$46.878
Mar ’24CA$41.71
CA$48.56
+16.4%
15.2%CA$58.00CA$31.50CA$48.168
Feb ’24CA$41.42
CA$46.94
+13.3%
14.8%CA$54.00CA$31.50CA$46.898
Jan ’24CA$39.54
CA$47.19
+19.3%
14.9%CA$54.00CA$31.50CA$45.718
Dec ’23CA$39.63
CA$46.69
+17.8%
14.9%CA$54.00CA$31.50CA$39.928

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 13:23
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Capital Markets
Moses SuttonBarclays
Moses SuttonBarclays