GFL Environmental Inc.

TSX:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$21.0b

GFL Environmental Valuation

Is GFL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of GFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: GFL (CA$61.37) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CA$101.64)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: GFL is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFL?

Key metric: As GFL is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GFL. This is calculated by dividing GFL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GFL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.7x
SalesCA$8.22b
Market CapCA$21.03b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GFL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GFL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.6x
ANRG Anaergia
3.3x40.25%CA$478.2m
EFN Element Fleet Management
4.4x-14.17%CA$13.6b
BYD Boyd Group Services
1.4x16.66%CA$6.3b
BLM BluMetric Environmental
1.5x27.65%CA$76.9m
GFL GFL Environmental
2.7x2.63%CA$21.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.7x) compared to the peer average (2.6x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GFL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Commercial Services Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDI GDI Integrated Facility Services
0.3x5.44%US$617.87m
DXT Dexterra Group
0.8x7.86%US$584.80m
CGY Calian Group
0.9x6.99%US$497.17m
KBL K-Bro Linen
1x11.18%US$322.82m
GFL 2.7xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies10PS048121620+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.7x) compared to the North American Commercial Services industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.7x
Fair PS Ratio3.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GFL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$61.37
CA$74.33
+21.12%
13.82%CA$89.00CA$60.00n/a9
Jan ’27CA$58.96
CA$75.30
+27.71%
13.50%CA$89.00CA$60.00n/a10
Dec ’26CA$62.56
CA$73.94
+18.19%
14.14%CA$89.00CA$58.00n/a12
Nov ’26CA$61.32
CA$75.53
+23.17%
13.77%CA$89.00CA$58.00n/a10
Oct ’26CA$65.03
CA$75.78
+16.52%
13.78%CA$89.00CA$58.00n/a10
Sep ’26CA$68.70
CA$74.25
+8.08%
14.59%CA$89.00CA$58.00n/a7
Aug ’26CA$68.73
CA$74.21
+7.98%
14.57%CA$89.00CA$58.00n/a7
Jul ’26CA$68.74
CA$67.75
-1.44%
20.67%CA$87.00CA$39.50n/a10
Jun ’26CA$69.36
CA$67.75
-2.32%
20.67%CA$87.00CA$39.50n/a10
May ’26CA$69.02
CA$68.61
-0.59%
20.65%CA$86.00CA$39.50n/a9
Apr ’26CA$68.36
CA$67.39
-1.42%
22.61%CA$86.00CA$39.50n/a9
Mar ’26CA$65.33
CA$68.65
+5.08%
22.25%CA$86.00CA$39.50n/a10
Feb ’26CA$62.70
CA$66.45
+5.98%
20.67%CA$85.00CA$39.50n/a10
Jan ’26CA$64.08
CA$66.86
+4.34%
19.48%CA$85.00CA$39.50CA$58.9611
Dec ’25CA$66.41
CA$65.32
-1.64%
17.87%CA$76.00CA$39.50CA$62.5611
Nov ’25CA$58.05
CA$58.95
+1.56%
17.77%CA$70.00CA$39.50CA$61.3211
Oct ’25CA$53.60
CA$57.05
+6.44%
17.32%CA$70.00CA$39.50CA$65.0310
Sep ’25CA$58.40
CA$57.25
-1.97%
16.82%CA$70.00CA$39.50CA$68.7010
Aug ’25CA$55.60
CA$59.15
+6.38%
15.83%CA$70.00CA$39.50CA$68.7310
Jul ’25CA$53.28
CA$55.75
+4.64%
16.22%CA$70.00CA$39.50CA$68.7410
Jun ’25CA$42.91
CA$54.45
+26.89%
14.07%CA$66.00CA$39.50CA$69.3610
May ’25CA$43.78
CA$53.95
+23.24%
12.52%CA$63.00CA$39.50CA$69.0211
Apr ’25CA$46.87
CA$53.23
+13.56%
14.24%CA$63.00CA$39.50CA$68.3611
Mar ’25CA$48.16
CA$51.63
+7.19%
17.42%CA$63.00CA$34.00CA$65.3312
Feb ’25CA$46.89
CA$48.88
+4.23%
18.30%CA$60.00CA$30.00CA$62.7012
Jan ’25CA$45.71
CA$48.54
+6.19%
18.35%CA$60.00CA$30.00CA$64.0812
CA$74.33
Fair Value
17.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/21 12:02
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/21 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 31 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Capital Markets
William GrippinBarclays
Moses SuttonBarclays