GFL Environmental Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CA$1.7b were what the analysts expected, GFL Environmental surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CA$0.28 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 18 analysts covering GFL Environmental is for revenues of CA$7.08b in 2026. This implies an uneasy 14% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 178% to CA$0.66. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$7.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.46 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for GFL Environmental

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$75.23, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic GFL Environmental analyst has a price target of CA$89.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$58.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the GFL Environmental's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 3.3% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for GFL Environmental, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards GFL Environmental following these results. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that GFL Environmental is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for GFL Environmental going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for GFL Environmental (2 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.