Canadian Defence Contract Win Could Be a Game Changer for MDA Space (TSX:MDA)

• MDA Space Ltd. announced in September 2025 that it, alongside ThothX Group, was selected to deliver enhanced space situation awareness services to the Canadian Department of National Defence, integrating ThothX's Earthfence Radar with MDA's secure cloud-based infrastructure.
• This collaboration highlights Canada's leadership in the fast-growing sector of space domain awareness and addresses rising risks to the nation's space-based assets from orbital debris and congestion.
• We'll examine how this new Department of National Defence contract could strengthen MDA Space's positioning within the global surveillance and defense technology market.

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MDA Space Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in MDA Space, you need to believe in the company's ability to secure and deliver on critical government and commercial satellite contracts, especially as global attention shifts toward safeguarding high-value space assets. The recent Canadian Department of National Defence contract for space domain awareness is a timely win but may be insufficient on its own to counterbalance the short-term impact of terminated constellation deals like EchoStar, which remain a more significant catalyst for near-term margin and revenue trends.

Earlier this year, MDA Space received notification that EchoStar would terminate a large LEO constellation contract, unrelated to MDA's performance but linked to customer spectrum matters. This development remains highly relevant when considering the company’s catalysts, since continued contract wins and backlog growth are central to utilizing expanded facilities and managing operational leverage.

Yet, with the scale of investments and ongoing facility expansions, the flip side investors must watch for is if order delays or cancellations begin to...

Read the full narrative on MDA Space (it's free!)

MDA Space's narrative projects CA$2.6 billion revenue and CA$271.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 24.5% yearly revenue growth and a CA$156.5 million earnings increase from the current CA$114.7 million.

Uncover how MDA Space's forecasts yield a CA$44.64 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen members of the Simply Wall St Community shared fair value targets ranging from CA$8.08 to CA$54.54 per share. Many are watching how the company’s dependency on consistent satellite orders could affect use of its new manufacturing capacity and future profitability.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on MDA Space - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own MDA Space Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MDA Space research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MDA Space research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MDA Space's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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