MDA Space Valuation

Is MDA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDA (CA$12.57) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$91.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MDA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17.1x
PEG Ratio0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MDA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MDA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.6x
HRX Héroux-Devtek
21.2x19.2%CA$807.7m
MAL Magellan Aerospace
40.1x53.3%CA$468.1m
BBD.B Bombardier
23.4x18.9%CA$8.7b
BDGI Badger Infrastructure Solutions
25.6x39.7%CA$1.4b
MDA MDA Space
32.4x46.0%CA$1.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.4x) compared to the peer average (27.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MDA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a71.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a71.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.4x) compared to the North American Aerospace & Defense industry average (31.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio32.4x
Fair PE Ratio36.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MDA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$12.57
CA$16.29
+29.6%
11.1%CA$19.00CA$14.00n/a7
Jun ’25CA$11.78
CA$16.29
+38.2%
11.1%CA$19.00CA$14.00n/a7
May ’25CA$14.58
CA$16.00
+9.7%
12.4%CA$19.00CA$13.00n/a7
Apr ’25CA$14.93
CA$15.79
+5.7%
11.2%CA$19.00CA$13.00n/a7
Mar ’25CA$14.71
CA$15.79
+7.3%
11.2%CA$19.00CA$13.00n/a7
Feb ’25CA$11.24
CA$14.68
+30.6%
12.2%CA$18.00CA$12.75n/a7
Jan ’25CA$11.52
CA$14.46
+25.6%
11.8%CA$18.00CA$12.75n/a7
Dec ’24CA$11.45
CA$14.46
+26.3%
11.8%CA$18.00CA$12.75n/a7
Nov ’24CA$11.79
CA$13.36
+13.3%
12.1%CA$16.00CA$11.00n/a7
Oct ’24CA$11.53
CA$13.21
+14.6%
11.8%CA$16.00CA$11.00n/a7
Sep ’24CA$10.98
CA$13.21
+20.3%
11.8%CA$16.00CA$11.00n/a7
Aug ’24CA$8.32
CA$10.71
+28.8%
16.1%CA$13.00CA$8.00n/a7
Jul ’24CA$8.17
CA$10.71
+31.1%
16.1%CA$13.00CA$8.00n/a7
Jun ’24CA$8.30
CA$10.00
+20.5%
15.2%CA$12.00CA$8.00CA$11.785
May ’24CA$6.56
CA$10.00
+52.4%
15.2%CA$12.00CA$8.00CA$14.585
Apr ’24CA$7.00
CA$10.50
+50.0%
12.1%CA$12.00CA$8.50CA$14.934
Mar ’24CA$8.05
CA$10.75
+33.5%
13.4%CA$12.00CA$8.50CA$14.714
Feb ’24CA$6.98
CA$10.75
+54.0%
13.4%CA$12.00CA$8.50CA$11.244
Jan ’24CA$6.40
CA$10.60
+65.6%
12.4%CA$12.00CA$8.50CA$11.525
Dec ’23CA$6.49
CA$10.60
+63.3%
12.4%CA$12.00CA$8.50CA$11.455
Nov ’23CA$6.73
CA$11.00
+63.4%
16.3%CA$13.00CA$8.00CA$11.795
Oct ’23CA$7.25
CA$11.00
+51.7%
16.3%CA$13.00CA$8.00CA$11.535
Sep ’23CA$7.47
CA$11.00
+47.3%
16.3%CA$13.00CA$8.00CA$10.985
Aug ’23CA$8.43
CA$13.40
+59.0%
11.2%CA$15.00CA$11.00CA$8.325
Jul ’23CA$7.98
CA$13.40
+67.9%
11.2%CA$15.00CA$11.00CA$8.175
Jun ’23CA$9.40
CA$13.40
+42.6%
11.2%CA$15.00CA$11.00CA$8.305

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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