MDA Space Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
MDAce is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16.6% and 9.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 15.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.7% in 3 years.
Key information
16.6%
Earnings growth rate
15.38%
EPS growth rate
| Aerospace & Defense earnings growth | 17.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 9.1% |
| Future return on equity | 9.66% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 14 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 30
MDA: Defence Contracts And Bullish Coverage Will Support Future Space Opportunity
The Analyst Price Target for MDA Space has been revised from CA$52.00 to roughly CA$53.09 as analysts factor in updated expectations for revenue growth, profitability and P/E multiples, supported by a recent wave of bullish initiations and higher targets across several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on MDA Space has been broadly constructive, with a cluster of initiations carrying upbeat views and several firms adjusting price targets into the CA$49 to CA$57 range.Narrative Update • Apr 16
MDA: Defence Contracts And Gateway Pause Will Shape Balanced Space Opportunity
The analyst price target for MDA Space has shifted from CA$53.63 to CA$52.00, with analysts pointing to updated fair value assumptions, adjustments to future P/E expectations, and a broad series of recent bullish initiations and target raises as key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on MDA Space has been active, with a cluster of initiations carrying bullish views and a series of target changes that feed directly into how investors might frame valuation and execution risk.Narrative Update • Apr 02
MDA: Defence And Government Contracts Will Support Upside As Gateway Pause Impact Stays Limited
The analyst price target for MDA Space has shifted from CA$41.94 to CA$53.63 as analysts factor in recent target increases across several firms and view the impact of NASA's Gateway pause as limited for the company. Analyst Commentary Recent research on MDA Space centers on updated price targets and the impact of NASA's Gateway pause, with most commentary focusing on how current contracts and future execution could influence the company’s valuation.
Narrative Update • Mar 18
MDA: Higher Future P E Assumptions Will Support Repriced Street Optimism
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for MDA Space to CA$49.00 from CA$36.20. This reflects a series of higher Street price targets in the CA$49.00 to CA$57.00 range, supported by updated views on growth, margins and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Mar 04
MDA: Defence Wins And Upgrades Will Support Higher Future Upside Potential
Analysts have increased their average price target on MDA Space by CA$14 to reflect recent upgrades and higher targets from several firms, supported by slightly adjusted assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth and profit margin. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a generally supportive tone around MDA Space, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets and assumptions in a way that contributes to the higher average target reported today.Narrative Update • Feb 18
MDA: Defence Contracts Will Support Higher Future Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their CA$ price targets on MDA Space by CA$4 to CA$14 in recent reports, reflecting updated views on its fair value, growth outlook, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on MDA Space points to a cluster of bullish analysts revisiting their models and lifting price targets, which suggests growing confidence in how the company is executing against its current plan.Narrative Update • Feb 04
MDA: Defence Contracts And Upgrade Will Drive Future Upside Potential
The analyst fair value estimate for MDA Space has increased from $55.00 to approximately $58.62, with analysts citing recent price target increases and an upgrade as key factors supporting the higher target. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around MDA Space has tilted in a more optimistic direction, with several bullish analysts revising their price targets higher and one major upgrade helping to support the higher fair value estimate.Narrative Update • Jan 21
MDA: Defence And Government Contracts Will Drive Future Upside Despite Rating Resets
MDA Space's analyst fair value estimate has moved modestly higher to $41.94 from $40.19, as analysts factor in updated views on growth, margins, and a higher future P/E multiple following recent target revisions and rating changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Morgan Stanley has upgraded MDA Space, while other firms have revised their price targets, with recent targets clustered in the high C$30s.Narrative Update • Jan 07
MDA: Defence Satellite Contracts Will Support Future Upside Despite Recent Cautious Shift
Analysts trimmed their price targets on MDA Space to a range of C$38 to C$39 from C$43 to C$45, reflecting updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that are now slightly closer to current estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more conservative stance on MDA Space, with updated price targets now clustered in the C$38 to C$39 range.Narrative Update • Dec 24
MDA: Future Mega-Constellation Demand Will Drive Upside Despite Recent Target Trims
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for MDA Space higher to C$40.19 from C$38.79, reflecting a slightly richer long term profit outlook and premium future earnings multiple, despite recent modest price target cuts from the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on MDA Space, with recent notes balancing solid long term growth expectations against near term execution and valuation risks.Narrative Update • Dec 10
MDA: Future Mega-Constellation Demand Will Drive Upside Despite Recent Target Trims
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for MDA Space slightly lower to about C$39, reflecting modest adjustments to discount rate and growth assumptions while still highlighting the company’s strong positioning in digital satellites and expanding new-space demand. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts continue to frame the recent target trims as valuation housekeeping rather than a structural shift in thesis, emphasizing that MDA Space remains well positioned to capture accelerating demand for digital satellites and new space infrastructure.Analysis Article • Dec 01
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, MDA Space (TSE:MDA) Presents An Opportunity
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Narrative Update • Nov 26
MDA: Long-Term Upside Will Be Driven By Mega-Constellation Demand
Analysts have reduced their average price target for MDA Space from approximately C$43 to C$39. They cite moderated growth projections and revised profit margin expectations as key drivers behind the adjustment.Narrative Update • Nov 05
MDA: Long-Term Upside Will Be Driven By Mega-Constellation Opportunities
The analyst price target for MDA Space has been reduced by approximately C$0.88 to C$42.69, as analysts cite recalibrated growth forecasts and evolving industry dynamics to support the adjustment. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on MDA Space reflects a mix of continued optimism for the company's long-term potential and some recalibration based on industry and company-specific developments.Analysis Article • Nov 05
MDA Space Ltd.'s (TSE:MDA) Stock Retreats 27% But Earnings Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the MDA Space Ltd. ( TSE:MDA ) share price has dived 27% in the last thirty days...Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Adjust Fair Value for MDA Space Amid Sector Growth and Recent Contract Developments
The analyst fair value estimate for MDA Space has edged up slightly to C$43.56. Analysts cite sector growth prospects and digital satellite capabilities as key rationale for the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Montreal Satellite Production And 5G Technology Will Fuel Global Connectivity
The analyst price target for MDA Space has been reduced from C$44.64 to C$42.93. Analysts cite lowered valuations amid broad sector target revisions, despite maintaining a positive outlook on the company's growth prospects.Narrative Update • Sep 24
Montreal Satellite Production And 5G Technology Will Fuel Global Connectivity
Analysts have reduced their price targets for MDA Space amid tempered near-term growth outlook and sector-wide multiple contraction, resulting in a new consensus fair value of CA$44.64. Analyst Commentary Recent price target reductions reflect near-term moderation in growth outlook and recalibration of valuation multiples.Analysis Article • Sep 12
MDA Space Ltd.'s (TSE:MDA) 29% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings
MDA Space Ltd. ( TSE:MDA ) shares have retraced a considerable 29% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their...Narrative Update • Sep 09
Montreal Satellite Production And 5G Technology Will Fuel Global Connectivity
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for MDA Space due to converging sector valuations and a more balanced risk/reward outlook despite strong operational execution and share price gains, lowering the consensus fair value from CA$51.43 to CA$48.07. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts see continued strong momentum supporting higher valuation, leading to increased price targets.Analysis Article • Aug 14
The Strong Earnings Posted By MDA Space (TSE:MDA) Are A Good Indication Of The Strength Of The Business
TSX:MDA 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore MDA Space's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Even...Analysis Article • Jul 02
With MDA Space Ltd. (TSE:MDA) It Looks Like You'll Get What You Pay For
When close to half the companies in Canada have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 15x, you may consider MDA...
New Narrative • Jun 02
MDA Space - All-round solutions for space
The main source of income is the market for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Medium Earth Orbit Satellites (MEO) with a revenue share of almost 60%.
New Narrative • Mar 11
New Globalstar Contract And Facility Expansion Will Boost Satellite Production Capacity By 2026
MDA Space's contract wins and successful project advancements indicate growing demand and potential for revenue growth and improved margins.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 2,243 | 166 | 155 | 379 | 10 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2,042 | 141 | 120 | 354 | 13 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,829 | 117 | -53 | 217 | 13 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,746 | 105 | -101 | 201 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,633 | 109 | 132 | 408 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,481 | 110 | 473 | 740 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,353 | 115 | 716 | 966 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,222 | 99 | 829 | 1,055 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,080 | 79 | 608 | 813 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 939 | 68 | 194 | 387 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 861 | 48 | -91 | 98 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 815 | 47 | -200 | -8 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 808 | 49 | -180 | 14 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 789 | 44 | -88 | 95 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 756 | 53 | -42 | 132 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 715 | 34 | -95 | 88 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 641 | 26 | -123 | 57 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 571 | 18 | -111 | 57 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 510 | 4 | -107 | 50 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 482 | 13 | -33 | 87 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 477 | 3 | -20 | 72 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 560 | -16 | -3 | 66 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 394 | -23 | 57 | 75 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MDA's forecast earnings growth (16.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3%).
Earnings vs Market: MDA's earnings (16.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (10.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: MDA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: MDA's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (4.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MDA's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MDA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.7%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/17 09:14 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
MDA Space Ltd. is covered by 17 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David McFadgen | ATB Cormark |
| Russell Stanley | Beacon Securities Limited |
| Thanos Moschopoulos | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |