MDA Space Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

MDA Space Ltd. (TSE:MDA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to CA$24.97 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CA$282m were what the analysts expected, MDA Space surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of CA$0.24 per share, an impressive 85% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for MDA Space

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MDA Space's eight analysts is for revenues of CA$1.39b in 2025. This would reflect a huge 48% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 57% to CA$0.88. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$1.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.88 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 5.8% to CA$25.13. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MDA Space, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$30.00 and the most bearish at CA$15.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MDA Space shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting MDA Space's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 37% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 22% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MDA Space is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for MDA Space going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether MDA Space is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.