Earnings Report: Boa Safra Sementes S.A. Missed Revenue Estimates By 17%

Last week, you might have seen that Boa Safra Sementes S.A. (BVMF:SOJA3) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to R$11.63 in the past week. Revenues were R$727m, 17% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of R$2.57 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Boa Safra Sementes after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Boa Safra Sementes

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Boa Safra Sementes are now predicting revenues of R$2.94b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 71% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 20% to R$2.10. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$2.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.12 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of R$19.32, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Boa Safra Sementes analyst has a price target of R$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$18.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Boa Safra Sementes' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 53% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 32% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Boa Safra Sementes to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Boa Safra Sementes analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Boa Safra Sementes (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.