Is UCB SA's (EBR:UCB) Recent Price Movement Underpinned By Its Weak Fundamentals?

With its stock down 14% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard UCB (EBR:UCB). It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. In this article, we decided to focus on UCB's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

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How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for UCB is:

11% = €1.1b ÷ €10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every €1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn €0.11 in profit.

See our latest analysis for UCB

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

UCB's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

At first glance, UCB seems to have a decent ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 13%. Further research shows that UCB's net income has shrunk at a rate of 12% over the last five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a high ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. Therefore, the shrinking earnings could be the result of other factors. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

That being said, we compared UCB's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 9.2% in the same 5-year period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if UCB is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is UCB Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 60% (implying that 40% of the profits are retained), most of UCB's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely. To know the 2 risks we have identified for UCB visit our risks dashboard for free.

Additionally, UCB has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 12% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 16%, over the same period.

Summary

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about UCB's performance. Primarily, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which explains the lack of growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.