Transurban Group

ASX:TCL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$41.8b

Transurban Group Valuation

Is TCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TCL (A$13.47) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$10.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TCL?

Key metric: As TCL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TCL. This is calculated by dividing TCL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TCL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio128.3x
EarningsAU$326.00m
Market CapAU$41.81b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.2x
ALX Atlas Arteria
22.1x22.3%AU$6.6b
QUB Qube Holdings
30.2x10.6%AU$6.9b
QAN Qantas Airways
10.3x9.9%AU$13.0b
AZJ Aurizon Holdings
14.3x5.7%AU$5.8b
TCL Transurban Group
128.3x20.9%AU$41.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (128.3x) compared to the peer average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Infrastructure Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TCL 128.3xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies32PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (128.3x) compared to the Global Infrastructure industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio128.3x
Fair PE Ratio30.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (128.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$13.47
AU$13.25
-1.6%
4.9%AU$14.75AU$12.30n/a13
Dec ’25AU$12.80
AU$13.23
+3.4%
4.6%AU$14.55AU$12.30n/a13
Nov ’25AU$12.62
AU$13.23
+4.9%
4.6%AU$14.55AU$12.30n/a13
Oct ’25AU$13.10
AU$13.23
+1.0%
4.5%AU$14.60AU$12.40n/a14
Sep ’25AU$13.55
AU$13.02
-3.9%
7.6%AU$14.60AU$10.03n/a15
Aug ’25AU$12.98
AU$13.15
+1.3%
8.7%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
Jul ’25AU$12.39
AU$13.24
+6.9%
9.1%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
Jun ’25AU$12.51
AU$13.24
+5.8%
9.1%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
May ’25AU$12.55
AU$13.30
+5.9%
9.0%AU$15.50AU$10.03n/a15
Apr ’25AU$13.32
AU$13.33
+0.05%
9.0%AU$15.60AU$10.03n/a15
Mar ’25AU$13.50
AU$13.33
-1.3%
9.0%AU$15.60AU$10.03n/a15
Feb ’25AU$13.31
AU$13.60
+2.2%
6.3%AU$15.90AU$12.50n/a14
Jan ’25AU$13.71
AU$13.51
-1.5%
6.3%AU$15.90AU$12.38n/a14
Dec ’24AU$12.92
AU$13.61
+5.4%
6.4%AU$15.90AU$12.38AU$12.8014
Nov ’24AU$11.94
AU$13.61
+14.0%
6.4%AU$15.90AU$12.38AU$12.6214
Oct ’24AU$12.69
AU$14.24
+12.2%
6.4%AU$15.90AU$12.50AU$13.1014
Sep ’24AU$13.21
AU$14.15
+7.1%
7.1%AU$15.90AU$12.50AU$13.5515
Aug ’24AU$14.34
AU$14.36
+0.2%
8.3%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.9815
Jul ’24AU$14.25
AU$14.43
+1.3%
8.1%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.3915
Jun ’24AU$14.66
AU$14.43
-1.6%
8.1%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.5115
May ’24AU$14.92
AU$14.43
-3.3%
8.1%AU$16.20AU$12.50AU$12.5515
Apr ’24AU$14.21
AU$14.15
-0.4%
7.6%AU$16.00AU$12.30AU$13.3215
Mar ’24AU$14.03
AU$14.15
+0.9%
7.1%AU$16.00AU$12.30AU$13.5017
Feb ’24AU$13.94
AU$13.85
-0.6%
7.7%AU$15.70AU$12.00AU$13.3117
Jan ’24AU$12.98
AU$13.69
+5.5%
7.2%AU$15.20AU$11.80AU$13.7116
Dec ’23AU$14.29
AU$13.69
-4.2%
7.2%AU$15.20AU$11.80AU$12.9216

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 05:20
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Transurban Group is covered by 37 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited