Qantas Airways Limited

ASX:QAN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$13.0b

Qantas Airways Valuation

Is QAN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of QAN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: QAN (A$8.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$8.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: QAN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for QAN?

Key metric: As QAN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for QAN. This is calculated by dividing QAN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is QAN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.3x
EarningsAU$1.26b
Market CapAU$12.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does QAN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for QAN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
AQZ Alliance Aviation Services
7.7x12.1%AU$466.2m
REX Regional Express Holdings
2.3xn/aAU$64.5m
QUB Qube Holdings
30.2x10.6%AU$6.9b
ALX Atlas Arteria
22.1x22.3%AU$6.6b
QAN Qantas Airways
10.3x9.9%AU$13.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: QAN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does QAN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
QAN 10.3xIndustry Avg. 9.5xNo. of Companies9PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: QAN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is QAN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

QAN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.3x
Fair PE Ratio19.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: QAN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst QAN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$8.72
AU$8.98
+3.0%
13.8%AU$10.86AU$6.10n/a15
Dec ’25AU$8.77
AU$8.86
+1.0%
13.0%AU$10.86AU$6.10n/a15
Nov ’25AU$8.17
AU$8.70
+6.5%
12.2%AU$10.86AU$6.10n/a15
Oct ’25AU$7.17
AU$7.50
+4.6%
11.0%AU$9.50AU$6.10n/a15
Sep ’25AU$6.71
AU$7.63
+13.7%
12.3%AU$9.54AU$6.10n/a16
Aug ’25AU$6.34
AU$7.29
+14.9%
13.5%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
Jul ’25AU$5.91
AU$7.29
+23.3%
13.6%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
Jun ’25AU$6.15
AU$7.19
+16.9%
14.4%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
May ’25AU$5.83
AU$7.21
+23.6%
14.9%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
Apr ’25AU$5.45
AU$7.16
+31.3%
15.3%AU$9.54AU$5.75n/a16
Mar ’25AU$5.17
AU$7.16
+38.4%
15.7%AU$9.54AU$5.60n/a16
Feb ’25AU$5.53
AU$7.29
+31.8%
12.8%AU$9.60AU$5.90n/a15
Jan ’25AU$5.37
AU$7.41
+37.9%
13.6%AU$9.60AU$5.60n/a16
Dec ’24AU$5.35
AU$7.43
+38.8%
13.7%AU$9.60AU$5.60AU$8.7716
Nov ’24AU$4.95
AU$7.53
+52.1%
13.3%AU$9.60AU$5.60AU$8.1716
Oct ’24AU$5.18
AU$7.61
+46.9%
13.5%AU$9.60AU$5.60AU$7.1716
Sep ’24AU$5.82
AU$8.14
+39.9%
11.7%AU$10.00AU$6.10AU$6.7117
Aug ’24AU$6.49
AU$8.12
+25.1%
12.1%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$6.3417
Jul ’24AU$6.20
AU$8.12
+31.0%
12.1%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$5.9117
Jun ’24AU$6.79
AU$8.10
+19.3%
11.9%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$6.1517
May ’24AU$6.74
AU$7.97
+18.2%
13.1%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$5.8317
Apr ’24AU$6.62
AU$7.72
+16.6%
14.6%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.4517
Mar ’24AU$6.44
AU$7.70
+19.6%
14.3%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.1717
Feb ’24AU$6.40
AU$7.64
+19.3%
14.1%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.5317
Jan ’24AU$6.01
AU$7.64
+27.2%
14.1%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.3717
Dec ’23AU$6.22
AU$7.54
+21.2%
15.2%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.3516

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 21:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Qantas Airways Limited is covered by 32 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David FraserAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited