Qantas Airways Valuation

Is QAN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of QAN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: QAN (A$8.89) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$8.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: QAN is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for QAN?

Key metric: As QAN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for QAN. This is calculated by dividing QAN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is QAN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.5x
EarningsAU$1.26b
Market CapAU$13.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does QAN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for QAN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.8x
9202 ANA Holdings
9.6x1.1%JP¥1.4t
IAG International Consolidated Airlines Group
6x4.6%UK£14.3b
A003490 Korean AirlinesLtd
8.4x10.2%₩9.1t
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
7.2x14.8%€8.1b
QAN Qantas Airways
10.5x9.9%AU$13.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: QAN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the peer average (7.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does QAN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
QAN 10.5xIndustry Avg. 9.7xNo. of Companies11PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: QAN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is QAN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

QAN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.5x
Fair PE Ratio20x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: QAN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst QAN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$8.89
AU$8.98
+1.1%
13.8%AU$10.86AU$6.10n/a15
Dec ’25AU$8.77
AU$8.86
+1.0%
13.0%AU$10.86AU$6.10n/a15
Nov ’25AU$8.17
AU$8.70
+6.5%
12.2%AU$10.86AU$6.10n/a15
Oct ’25AU$7.17
AU$7.50
+4.6%
11.0%AU$9.50AU$6.10n/a15
Sep ’25AU$6.71
AU$7.63
+13.7%
12.3%AU$9.54AU$6.10n/a16
Aug ’25AU$6.34
AU$7.29
+14.9%
13.5%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
Jul ’25AU$5.91
AU$7.29
+23.3%
13.6%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
Jun ’25AU$6.15
AU$7.19
+16.9%
14.4%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
May ’25AU$5.83
AU$7.21
+23.6%
14.9%AU$9.54AU$5.85n/a16
Apr ’25AU$5.45
AU$7.16
+31.3%
15.3%AU$9.54AU$5.75n/a16
Mar ’25AU$5.17
AU$7.16
+38.4%
15.7%AU$9.54AU$5.60n/a16
Feb ’25AU$5.53
AU$7.29
+31.8%
12.8%AU$9.60AU$5.90n/a15
Jan ’25AU$5.37
AU$7.41
+37.9%
13.6%AU$9.60AU$5.60n/a16
Dec ’24AU$5.35
AU$7.43
+38.8%
13.7%AU$9.60AU$5.60AU$8.7716
Nov ’24AU$4.95
AU$7.53
+52.1%
13.3%AU$9.60AU$5.60AU$8.1716
Oct ’24AU$5.18
AU$7.61
+46.9%
13.5%AU$9.60AU$5.60AU$7.1716
Sep ’24AU$5.82
AU$8.14
+39.9%
11.7%AU$10.00AU$6.10AU$6.7117
Aug ’24AU$6.49
AU$8.12
+25.1%
12.1%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$6.3417
Jul ’24AU$6.20
AU$8.12
+31.0%
12.1%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$5.9117
Jun ’24AU$6.79
AU$8.10
+19.3%
11.9%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$6.1517
May ’24AU$6.74
AU$7.97
+18.2%
13.1%AU$10.00AU$5.90AU$5.8317
Apr ’24AU$6.62
AU$7.72
+16.6%
14.6%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.4517
Mar ’24AU$6.44
AU$7.70
+19.6%
14.3%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.1717
Feb ’24AU$6.40
AU$7.64
+19.3%
14.1%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.5317
Jan ’24AU$6.01
AU$7.64
+27.2%
14.1%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.3717
Dec ’23AU$6.22
AU$7.54
+21.2%
15.2%AU$10.00AU$5.68AU$5.3516

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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