Atlas Arteria Limited

ASX:ALX Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$7.0b

Atlas Arteria Valuation

Is ALX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALX (A$4.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$9.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ALX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue60.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA134.2x
PEG Ratio1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average47.2x
TCL Transurban Group
121.8x19.0%AU$39.7b
QUB Qube Holdings
29.7x10.7%AU$6.7b
AZJ Aurizon Holdings
15.6x5.5%AU$6.3b
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
21.6x6.5%AU$1.7b
ALX Atlas Arteria
23.5x19.9%AU$7.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x) compared to the peer average (47.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Infrastructure Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.9%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.9%
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No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x) compared to the Global Infrastructure industry average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.5x
Fair PE Ratio22.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.87
AU$5.40
+10.8%
8.5%AU$6.20AU$4.64n/a10
Nov ’25AU$4.84
AU$5.40
+11.5%
8.5%AU$6.20AU$4.64n/a10
Oct ’25AU$4.79
AU$5.49
+14.7%
7.6%AU$6.16AU$4.97n/a10
Sep ’25AU$5.10
AU$5.50
+7.8%
7.5%AU$6.16AU$4.98n/a10
Aug ’25AU$5.20
AU$5.55
+6.7%
6.7%AU$6.27AU$5.06n/a10
Jul ’25AU$5.13
AU$5.61
+9.4%
6.7%AU$6.41AU$5.10n/a10
Jun ’25AU$5.32
AU$5.65
+6.1%
5.9%AU$6.33AU$5.29n/a10
May ’25AU$5.23
AU$5.65
+7.9%
5.9%AU$6.33AU$5.29n/a10
Apr ’25AU$5.33
AU$5.76
+8.1%
5.7%AU$6.37AU$5.29n/a10
Mar ’25AU$5.37
AU$5.72
+6.5%
5.5%AU$6.37AU$5.29n/a9
Feb ’25AU$5.35
AU$5.85
+9.3%
4.8%AU$6.42AU$5.52n/a9
Jan ’25AU$5.78
AU$5.93
+2.5%
7.1%AU$6.88AU$5.36n/a9
Dec ’24AU$5.69
AU$6.04
+6.1%
8.0%AU$6.88AU$5.36n/a9
Nov ’24AU$5.38
AU$6.04
+12.2%
8.0%AU$6.88AU$5.36AU$4.849
Oct ’24AU$5.53
AU$6.36
+15.0%
6.0%AU$6.88AU$5.85AU$4.799
Sep ’24AU$6.17
AU$6.41
+3.8%
5.5%AU$6.88AU$5.85AU$5.1010
Aug ’24AU$6.21
AU$6.47
+4.2%
4.8%AU$6.88AU$6.00AU$5.2010
Jul ’24AU$6.21
AU$6.46
+4.0%
4.5%AU$6.88AU$6.00AU$5.1310
Jun ’24AU$6.39
AU$6.46
+1.1%
4.5%AU$6.88AU$6.00AU$5.3210
May ’24AU$6.56
AU$6.46
-1.5%
4.5%AU$6.88AU$6.00AU$5.2310
Apr ’24AU$6.29
AU$6.49
+3.2%
5.9%AU$7.25AU$6.00AU$5.3310
Mar ’24AU$6.69
AU$6.65
-0.6%
9.0%AU$8.27AU$6.00AU$5.3712
Feb ’24AU$7.00
AU$6.73
-3.8%
9.2%AU$8.27AU$6.00AU$5.3512
Jan ’24AU$6.61
AU$6.78
+2.5%
9.4%AU$8.27AU$6.00AU$5.7811
Dec ’23AU$7.00
AU$6.78
-3.2%
9.8%AU$8.27AU$6.00AU$5.6910
Nov ’23AU$6.65
AU$6.73
+1.2%
9.3%AU$8.27AU$6.00AU$5.3810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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