Aurizon Holdings Limited

ASX:AZJ Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$5.8b

Aurizon Holdings Valuation

Is AZJ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AZJ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AZJ (A$3.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$8.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AZJ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AZJ?

Key metric: As AZJ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AZJ. This is calculated by dividing AZJ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AZJ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.3x
EarningsAU$406.00m
Market CapAU$5.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AZJ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AZJ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24x
ALX Atlas Arteria
23.3x22.3%AU$7.0b
QUB Qube Holdings
31.3x10.5%AU$7.1b
KLS Kelsian Group
17.1x9.7%AU$989.7m
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
24.2x6.4%AU$1.9b
AZJ Aurizon Holdings
14.3x5.7%AU$5.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the peer average (24x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AZJ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AZJ 14.3xIndustry Avg. 14.6xNo. of Companies33PE01020304050+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AZJ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AZJ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.3x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AZJ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.25
AU$3.63
+11.7%
9.4%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a14
Dec ’25AU$3.38
AU$3.63
+7.5%
9.4%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a14
Nov ’25AU$3.40
AU$3.65
+7.4%
9.3%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a14
Oct ’25AU$3.52
AU$3.65
+3.8%
8.9%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a15
Sep ’25AU$3.38
AU$3.68
+8.7%
8.9%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a16
Aug ’25AU$3.71
AU$3.99
+7.4%
6.8%AU$4.70AU$3.70n/a16
Jul ’25AU$3.65
AU$4.01
+9.9%
6.2%AU$4.70AU$3.73n/a16
Jun ’25AU$3.68
AU$4.01
+9.0%
6.2%AU$4.70AU$3.73n/a16
May ’25AU$3.78
AU$4.02
+6.4%
6.0%AU$4.70AU$3.75n/a16
Apr ’25AU$4.00
AU$4.02
+0.5%
6.0%AU$4.70AU$3.75n/a16
Mar ’25AU$3.84
AU$4.02
+4.7%
6.0%AU$4.70AU$3.75n/a16
Feb ’25AU$3.75
AU$3.94
+4.9%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49n/a15
Jan ’25AU$3.80
AU$3.92
+3.2%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49n/a15
Dec ’24AU$3.54
AU$3.92
+10.8%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.3815
Nov ’24AU$3.44
AU$3.92
+14.0%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.4015
Oct ’24AU$3.49
AU$3.92
+12.3%
7.9%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.5215
Sep ’24AU$3.63
AU$3.93
+8.3%
7.4%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.3817
Aug ’24AU$3.81
AU$3.97
+4.3%
8.4%AU$4.79AU$3.49AU$3.7117
Jul ’24AU$3.92
AU$3.88
-1.0%
10.0%AU$4.79AU$3.39AU$3.6517
Jun ’24AU$3.56
AU$3.82
+7.2%
10.9%AU$4.79AU$3.39AU$3.6816
May ’24AU$3.44
AU$3.80
+10.5%
10.8%AU$4.70AU$3.39AU$3.7815
Apr ’24AU$3.36
AU$3.80
+13.1%
10.8%AU$4.70AU$3.39AU$4.0015
Mar ’24AU$3.29
AU$3.78
+14.9%
10.5%AU$4.70AU$3.39AU$3.8415
Feb ’24AU$3.73
AU$4.03
+8.2%
10.0%AU$4.88AU$3.50AU$3.7514
Jan ’24AU$3.73
AU$4.03
+8.2%
10.0%AU$4.88AU$3.50AU$3.8014
Dec ’23AU$3.86
AU$3.99
+3.3%
11.3%AU$4.88AU$3.36AU$3.5415

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 01:21
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aurizon Holdings Limited is covered by 28 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Moira DawAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited