Aurizon Holdings Limited

ASX:AZJ Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.1b

Aurizon Holdings Valuation

Is AZJ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AZJ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AZJ (A$3.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$8.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AZJ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AZJ?

Key metric: As AZJ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AZJ. This is calculated by dividing AZJ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AZJ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15x
EarningsAU$406.00m
Market CapAU$6.11b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AZJ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AZJ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.1x
ALX Atlas Arteria
23x21.8%AU$6.9b
QUB Qube Holdings
30.2x10.5%AU$6.9b
KLS Kelsian Group
17.5x9.7%AU$1.0b
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
21.6x6.5%AU$1.7b
AZJ Aurizon Holdings
15x5.0%AU$6.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the peer average (23.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AZJ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AZJ 15.0xIndustry Avg. 14.8xNo. of Companies34PE01224364860+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AZJ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AZJ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AZJ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AZJ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.40
AU$3.64
+7.0%
9.4%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a14
Nov ’25AU$3.40
AU$3.65
+7.4%
9.3%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a14
Oct ’25AU$3.52
AU$3.65
+3.8%
8.9%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a15
Sep ’25AU$3.38
AU$3.68
+8.7%
8.9%AU$4.50AU$3.25n/a16
Aug ’25AU$3.71
AU$3.99
+7.4%
6.8%AU$4.70AU$3.70n/a16
Jul ’25AU$3.65
AU$4.01
+9.9%
6.2%AU$4.70AU$3.73n/a16
Jun ’25AU$3.68
AU$4.01
+9.0%
6.2%AU$4.70AU$3.73n/a16
May ’25AU$3.78
AU$4.02
+6.4%
6.0%AU$4.70AU$3.75n/a16
Apr ’25AU$4.00
AU$4.02
+0.5%
6.0%AU$4.70AU$3.75n/a16
Mar ’25AU$3.84
AU$4.02
+4.7%
6.0%AU$4.70AU$3.75n/a16
Feb ’25AU$3.75
AU$3.94
+4.9%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49n/a15
Jan ’25AU$3.80
AU$3.92
+3.2%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49n/a15
Dec ’24AU$3.54
AU$3.92
+10.8%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49n/a15
Nov ’24AU$3.44
AU$3.92
+14.0%
7.1%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.4015
Oct ’24AU$3.49
AU$3.92
+12.3%
7.9%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.5215
Sep ’24AU$3.63
AU$3.93
+8.3%
7.4%AU$4.70AU$3.49AU$3.3817
Aug ’24AU$3.81
AU$3.97
+4.3%
8.4%AU$4.79AU$3.49AU$3.7117
Jul ’24AU$3.92
AU$3.88
-1.0%
10.0%AU$4.79AU$3.39AU$3.6517
Jun ’24AU$3.56
AU$3.82
+7.2%
10.9%AU$4.79AU$3.39AU$3.6816
May ’24AU$3.44
AU$3.80
+10.5%
10.8%AU$4.70AU$3.39AU$3.7815
Apr ’24AU$3.36
AU$3.80
+13.1%
10.8%AU$4.70AU$3.39AU$4.0015
Mar ’24AU$3.29
AU$3.78
+14.9%
10.5%AU$4.70AU$3.39AU$3.8415
Feb ’24AU$3.73
AU$4.03
+8.2%
10.0%AU$4.88AU$3.50AU$3.7514
Jan ’24AU$3.73
AU$4.03
+8.2%
10.0%AU$4.88AU$3.50AU$3.8014
Dec ’23AU$3.86
AU$3.99
+3.3%
11.3%AU$4.88AU$3.36AU$3.5415
Nov ’23AU$3.68
AU$3.99
+8.4%
11.3%AU$4.88AU$3.36AU$3.4415

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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