Transurban Group

ASX:TCL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$46.7b

Transurban Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Transurban Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.4% and 3.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 12.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 19.5% in 3 years.

Key information

11.4%

Earnings growth rate

12.21%

EPS growth rate

Infrastructure earnings growth12.9%
Revenue growth rate3.8%
Future return on equity19.54%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated29 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 26

TCL: Steady Traffic And Margins Will Support A Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Transurban Group slightly to A$13.91 from A$13.94, reflecting modest adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth outlook, profit margin assumptions and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Reported Average Daily Traffic (ADT) growth of 3.6% for March 2026, based on monthly traffic results.
Narrative Update • Apr 24

TCL: Traffic Resilience And Higher Margins Will Support A Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Transurban Group by A$0.05 to A$13.94 as they factor in updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Transurban reported Average Daily Traffic (ADT) growth of 3.6% for March 2026, giving you a recent snapshot of usage across its toll road network (company announcement).
Narrative Update • Apr 10

TCL: Tunnel Opening And 2025 Distribution Will Support A Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Transurban Group from A$14.36 to A$13.99, reflecting adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth assumptions, profit margin outlook and the future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Trimmed slightly from A$14.36 to A$13.99.
Narrative Update • Feb 11

TCL: Tunnel Opening And 2025 Distribution Will Support A Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have maintained their A$14.36 price target for Transurban Group, citing a slightly higher discount rate and revenue growth outlook, along with a lower profit margin and a higher assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News The West Gate Tunnel Project is scheduled to open to traffic on Sunday 14 December 2025, providing an alternative route to the West Gate Bridge and connecting the West Gate Freeway to the Port of Melbourne and CityLink (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 28

TCL: Tunnel Opening And Distribution Outlook Will Shape Fairly Valued Profile

Analysts have modestly adjusted their valuation framework for Transurban Group, keeping the fair value estimate steady at A$14.36 while refining assumptions around the discount rate, profit margin and future P/E to better reflect current expectations for earnings quality and risk. What's in the News West Gate Tunnel Project is scheduled to open to traffic on Sunday 14 December 2025, providing an alternative to the West Gate Bridge and a new connection between the West Gate Freeway, the Port of Melbourne and CityLink (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Jan 21

Some Confidence Is Lacking In Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) P/S

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Infrastructure industry in Australia have price-to-sales ratios...
Narrative Update • Jan 13

TCL: West Gate Tunnel Opening And Lower Discount Rate Will Shape Outlook

Analysts now see fair value for Transurban Group at A$14.36, up from A$14.21, with the shift linked to updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and a higher assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News The West Gate Tunnel Project in Melbourne is scheduled to open to traffic on Sunday 14 December 2025, providing an alternative to the West Gate Bridge and connecting the West Gate Freeway to the Port of Melbourne, CityLink and the CBD (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Dec 25

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article • Dec 05

Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To A$0.34

Transurban Group's ( ASX:TCL ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to A$0.34 on...
Analysis Article • Oct 04

Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Infrastructure industry in Australia have price-to-sales ratios...
Analysis Article • Sep 12

Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Narrative Update • Aug 27

Urbanization And New Projects Will Revitalize Australian Toll Roads

Transurban Group’s consensus price target has been raised to A$14.18, reflecting analysts’ expectations for improved revenue from post-construction traffic growth and easing operational disruptions in key metropolitan markets. Analyst Commentary Upgrade driven by reported traffic growth of approximately 2% in FY25.
Analysis Article • Jun 30

Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) Price Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Transurban Group's ( ASX:TCL ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.4x may look like a poor investment opportunity...
Analysis Article • Jun 12

Calculating The Fair Value Of Transurban Group (ASX:TCL)

Key Insights The projected fair value for Transurban Group is AU$12.21 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...
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New Narrative • Feb 23

AI Technology And North American Expansion Will Shape Future Prospects

Strategic positioning in growth areas and infrastructure innovation could drive long-term revenue increases and operational efficiencies for Transurban.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:TCL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/20284,1626682,7152,6138
6/30/20274,1217722,4662,39410
6/30/20264,0826012,4732,46910
12/31/20253,9204781,0141,619N/A
9/30/20253,8453068111,567N/A
6/30/20253,7701336081,515N/A
3/31/20253,7991045691,549N/A
12/31/20243,827755291,583N/A
9/30/20243,9732015221,607N/A
6/30/20244,1193265151,631N/A
3/31/20244,1852773951,572N/A
12/31/20234,2502272751,513N/A
9/30/20234,2041462801,486N/A
6/30/20234,157642841,459N/A
3/31/20234,1471144331,409N/A
12/31/20224,1371635811,359N/A
9/30/20223,772914751,171N/A
6/30/20223,40619369982N/A
3/31/20223,085-29191915N/A
12/31/20212,764-7713848N/A
9/30/20212,825-166-69871N/A
6/30/20212,886-256-152893N/A
3/31/20212,829-346-275879N/A
12/31/20202,771-437-398864N/A
9/30/20202,970-247-418998N/A
6/30/20203,169-58-4381,131N/A
3/31/20203,52141-4841,227N/A
12/31/20193,873139-5301,323N/A
9/30/20194,020155N/A1,260N/A
6/30/20194,166171N/A1,197N/A
3/31/20193,977224N/A1,158N/A
12/31/20183,788276N/A1,119N/A
9/30/20183,543381N/A1,086N/A
6/30/20183,298485N/A1,053N/A
3/31/20183,160476N/A1,042N/A
12/31/20173,022467N/A1,031N/A
9/30/20172,877353N/A934N/A
6/30/20172,732239N/A837N/A
3/31/20172,610184N/A805N/A
12/31/20162,488128N/A772N/A
9/30/20162,349114N/A841N/A
6/30/20162,21099N/A910N/A
3/31/20162,08192N/A836N/A
12/31/20151,95284N/A761N/A
9/30/20151,906-49N/A533N/A
6/30/20151,860-182N/A304N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TCL's forecast earnings growth (11.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).

Earnings vs Market: TCL's earnings (11.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (12% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TCL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TCL's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (6.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TCL's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TCL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/29 18:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Transurban Group is covered by 28 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Shaurya VisenBofA Global Research