Stock Analysis

Strong week for Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of five-year loss

ASX:KGN
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It's nice to see the Kogan.com Ltd (ASX:KGN) share price up 11% in a week. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 53%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

While the last five years has been tough for Kogan.com shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

View our latest analysis for Kogan.com

Given that Kogan.com didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last half decade, Kogan.com saw its revenue increase by 15% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. The share price return isn't so respectable with an annual loss of 9% over the period. That suggests the market is disappointed with the current growth rate. That could lead to an opportunity if the company is going to become profitable sooner rather than later.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:KGN Earnings and Revenue Growth April 26th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Kogan.com

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Kogan.com's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Kogan.com shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 49%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Kogan.com shareholders are down 17% for the year, but the market itself is up 2.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Kogan.com by clicking this link.

Kogan.com is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.