Kogan.com Valuation

Is KGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KGN (A$7.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$12.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KGN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KGN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

KGN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA72.6x
PEG Ratio3.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KGN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
MYR Myer Holdings
14.6x2.0%AU$669.3m
TRS Reject Shop
19.7x32.0%AU$167.4m
HVN Harvey Norman Holdings
16.8x9.5%AU$6.3b
WES Wesfarmers
30.6x8.9%AU$76.7b
KGN Kogan.com
120.3x34.4%AU$800.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (120.3x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KGN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (120.3x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (20.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KGN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KGN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio120.3x
Fair PE Ratio31.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (120.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KGN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$7.95
AU$7.52
-5.4%
20.7%AU$10.70AU$5.50n/a8
Mar ’25AU$7.93
AU$7.60
-4.2%
21.6%AU$10.70AU$5.50n/a7
Feb ’25AU$5.83
AU$5.75
-1.4%
35.2%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Jan ’25AU$5.23
AU$5.57
+6.6%
37.4%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Dec ’24AU$5.12
AU$5.57
+8.9%
37.4%AU$10.70AU$4.09n/a8
Nov ’24AU$4.58
AU$5.54
+20.9%
38.1%AU$10.70AU$4.00n/a8
Oct ’24AU$5.26
AU$5.80
+10.3%
36.8%AU$10.70AU$4.01n/a7
Sep ’24AU$5.50
AU$5.80
+5.5%
36.8%AU$10.70AU$4.01n/a7
Aug ’24AU$6.25
AU$5.67
-9.2%
38.7%AU$10.70AU$3.92n/a7
Jul ’24AU$4.85
AU$4.47
-7.9%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.80n/a8
Jun ’24AU$4.33
AU$4.47
+3.2%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.80n/a8
May ’24AU$4.43
AU$4.64
+4.7%
54.4%AU$10.70AU$2.80n/a7
Apr ’24AU$3.71
AU$4.58
+23.5%
51.1%AU$10.70AU$3.07n/a8
Mar ’24AU$3.96
AU$4.58
+15.7%
51.1%AU$10.70AU$3.07AU$7.938
Feb ’24AU$4.54
AU$4.45
-1.9%
50.8%AU$10.70AU$2.96AU$5.839
Jan ’24AU$3.50
AU$4.28
+22.2%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$5.239
Dec ’23AU$3.46
AU$4.28
+23.6%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$5.129
Nov ’23AU$3.38
AU$4.28
+26.6%
53.8%AU$10.70AU$2.73AU$4.589
Oct ’23AU$3.05
AU$4.70
+54.2%
53.1%AU$11.70AU$3.15AU$5.269
Sep ’23AU$3.47
AU$5.02
+44.8%
50.9%AU$11.70AU$3.15AU$5.509
Aug ’23AU$4.32
AU$5.14
+19.0%
49.0%AU$11.70AU$3.15AU$6.259
Jul ’23AU$2.83
AU$5.31
+87.7%
47.9%AU$11.70AU$2.90AU$4.859
Jun ’23AU$3.54
AU$5.79
+63.6%
40.5%AU$11.70AU$3.75AU$4.339
May ’23AU$3.91
AU$5.83
+49.2%
39.6%AU$11.70AU$3.75AU$4.439
Apr ’23AU$5.55
AU$6.94
+25.0%
30.2%AU$11.70AU$5.00AU$3.719
Mar ’23AU$5.92
AU$6.94
+17.2%
30.2%AU$11.70AU$5.00AU$3.969

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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