There's Reason For Concern Over Articore Group Limited's (ASX:ATG) Massive 38% Price Jump

Articore Group Limited (ASX:ATG) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 38% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 56% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Articore Group's P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Multiline Retail industry in Australia is also close to 0.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Articore Group

What Does Articore Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

Articore Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Keen to find out how analysts think Articore Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Articore Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.2%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 33% in total over the last three years. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 1.1% each year during the coming three years according to the five analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 4.8% per annum.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that Articore Group's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Articore Group appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our check of Articore Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. With this in mind, we don't feel the current P/S is justified as declining revenues are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If the poor revenue outlook tells us one thing, it's that these current price levels could be unsustainable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Articore Group, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.