Did Five-Year HEMGENIX Data Just Shift CSL's (ASX:CSL) Gene Therapy Investment Narrative?

• CSL recently reported five-year Phase 3 HOPE-B data in NEJM and at the ASH meeting, showing HEMGENIX’s durable factor IX activity, sustained bleed reduction, and continued freedom from routine prophylaxis in adults with hemophilia B.
• The results reinforce HEMGENIX’s position as the only commercially available gene therapy for adult hemophilia B, with long-term safety and efficacy data that may shape how patients and clinicians view one-time gene therapy versus ongoing prophylaxis.
• We’ll now examine how this five-year durability and safety profile for HEMGENIX could influence CSL’s investment narrative and long-term growth story.

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CSL Investment Narrative Recap

To own CSL, you need to believe its plasma, vaccines and emerging gene therapy franchises can compound earnings while the company manages cost pressures and regulatory change. The five year HOPE B data for HEMGENIX directly supports the near term catalyst of uptake for new launches, while also partly easing concerns around gene therapy durability, but it does not remove the broader risks around pricing pressure and execution on restructuring.

The most relevant recent announcement alongside HOPE B is CSL’s reaffirmed FY2025 guidance for revenue growth of about 5 to 7% and NPATA of US$3.2 billion to US$3.3 billion. Together with the HEMGENIX data, this anchors the investment case in a combination of steady core earnings and optionality from newer therapies, even as upcoming years may be shaped by cost pressures and restructuring linked to the Seqirus demerger.

Yet while gene therapy progress is encouraging, investors should still be aware of the risk that new products like HEMGENIX and ANDEMBRY could see slower than expected uptake...

Read the full narrative on CSL (it's free!)

CSL's narrative projects $18.1 billion revenue and $4.2 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how CSL's forecasts yield a A$244.20 fair value, a 34% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seventeen members of the Simply Wall St Community value CSL between A$240 and A$313.52 per share, highlighting a wide spread of expectations. When you set those views against execution risks from restructuring and slower revenue guidance, it underlines why many market participants are weighing several different paths for CSL’s performance.

Explore 17 other fair value estimates on CSL - why the stock might be worth as much as 73% more than the current price!

Build Your Own CSL Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your CSL research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free CSL research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate CSL's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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