West African Resources (ASX:WAF) Valuation After Early Keaca Mine Start and Major Growth Plans

West African Resources (ASX:WAF) has caught attention after bringing its Keaca mine online earlier than expected and under budget. Management followed up with plans to ramp up production and to update long-term reserves soon.

See our latest analysis for West African Resources.

With Keaca now up and running ahead of schedule, market interest has shifted from uncertainty to optimism, and it shows. West African Resources has seen a 31.6% share price return over the past 90 days and an impressive year-to-date gain of 107.5%. The stock has delivered a 96.8% total shareholder return over the last twelve months, highlighting solid momentum building on both short- and long-term performance.

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With rapid gains and strong execution now in the rearview, investors are left to ponder whether West African Resources still trades at an attractive valuation, or if the market has already priced in its growth outlook. Is there still a buying opportunity, or is all the future upside already reflected?

Most Popular Narrative: 15.6% Undervalued

West African Resources’ fair value is estimated at A$3.60, compared to the last close price of A$3.04. This suggests strong further upside potential if the narrative’s assumptions prove true.

The successful commissioning and ramp-up of the Kiaka Gold Project, with first gold poured ahead of schedule and under budget, positions West African Resources for a material production increase in 2025 and beyond. This could boost revenue and deliver significant operating leverage as fixed costs are absorbed over higher output.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about how this narrative justifies a premium to today’s price? The explanation centers on bold assumptions for rapid revenue growth, future profit margins, and a valuation multiple that undercuts the entire industry. Find out which financial forecasts might drive such a bullish price target.

Result: Fair Value of $3.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, operational setbacks at Sanbrado or power supply delays at Kiaka could quickly erode margin gains and cast doubt on earnings growth projections.

Find out about the key risks to this West African Resources narrative.

Build Your Own West African Resources Narrative

If you’d rather draw your own conclusions or want to test a different thesis, the full data is at your fingertips. Creating your own narrative takes less than three minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your West African Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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