ASX:NST

Stock Analysis Report

Northern Star Resources

Executive Summary

Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, processing, and sale of gold deposits in Australia.

Rewards

Trading at 16.5% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 19.77% per year

Earnings have grown 13.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

Excellent balance sheet with moderate growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Northern Star Resources's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: NST's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.9%

NST

0.3%

AU Metals and Mining

1.5%

AU Market


1 Year Return

42.7%

NST

6.2%

AU Metals and Mining

15.6%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: NST exceeded the Australian Metals and Mining industry which returned 7.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NST exceeded the Australian Market which returned 16.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

NSTIndustryMarket
7 Day1.9%0.3%1.5%
30 Day13.0%-4.7%0.4%
90 Day48.8%3.8%4.1%
1 Year44.7%42.7%11.6%6.2%20.6%15.6%
3 Year224.5%209.8%50.2%31.6%37.1%18.7%
5 Year632.5%567.3%88.6%44.4%50.9%17.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Northern Star Resources's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Northern Star Resources undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

16.5%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: NST (A$13.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$16.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NST is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NST is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.7x) compared to the Metals and Mining industry average (12.4x).

PE vs Market: NST is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.7x) compared to the Australian market (18.8x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: NST is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.3x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NST is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (5.3x) compared to the AU Metals and Mining industry average (1.4x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Northern Star Resources forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 13 analysts?

19.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NST's forecast earnings growth (19.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: NST's earnings (19.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (9.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NST's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NST's revenue (10.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (4.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NST's revenue (10.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NST's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (20%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Northern Star Resources performed over the past 5 years?

13.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NST has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NST's current net profit margins (12.5%) are lower than last year (17.1%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NST's earnings have grown by 13.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NST's earnings growth over the past year (1.2%) is below its 5-year average (13.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NST earnings growth over the past year (1.2%) underperformed the Metals and Mining industry 19.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: NST's Return on Equity (10.4%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Northern Star Resources's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NST's short term assets (A$1.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (A$303.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: NST's short term assets (A$1.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (A$832.7M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NST's debt to equity ratio (25.8%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: NST's debt to equity ratio has increased from 11.9% to 25.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NST's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (102.5%).

Interest Coverage: NST's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (563.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: NST has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: NST's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 3.2x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Northern Star Resources's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.08%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

Purchase Northern Star Resources before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.


Dividend Yield vs Market

company1.1%marketbottom25%2.3%markettop25%5.5%industryaverage4.4%forecastin3Years1.5%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: NST's dividend (1.08%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.29%).

High Dividend: NST's dividend (1.08%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (5.5%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NST is not paying a notable dividend for the Australian market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: NST is not paying a notable dividend for the Australian market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: NST is not paying a notable dividend for the Australian market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of NST's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Australian market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Stuart Tonkin (43yo)

3.3yrs

Tenure

AU$1,612,817

Compensation

Mr. Stuart Peter Tonkin, BEng(Hons) has been the Chief Executive Officer at Northern Star Resources Limited since November 29, 2016. Mr. Tonkin served as Chief Operating Officer at Northern Star Resources  ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Stuart's total compensation ($USD1.08M) is below average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD2.80M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Stuart's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
William Beament
Executive Chairman3.3yrsAU$3.18m0.76% A$76.6m
Stuart Tonkin
Chief Executive Officer3.3yrsAU$1.61m0.020% A$2.0m
Ryan Gurner
Chief Financial Officer1.3yrsAU$443.82kno data
Luke Creagh
Chief Operating Officer1.3yrsAU$552.72kno data
Hilary Macdonald
General Counsel & Company Secretary4.1yrsAU$630.39kno data
Michael Mulroney
Chief Geological Officer4.7yrsAU$889.25kno data
Darren Stralow
Chief Development Officer0yrsno datano data
Philip Tornatora
General Manager of Exploration0yrsno datano data
Rebecca Ciotti
Executive Assistant to Executive Chairman & CEO0yrsno datano data
Sarah Curnow
Legal Counsel & Assistant Company Secretary0yrsno datano data

3.3yrs

Average Tenure

43yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: NST's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
William Beament
Executive Chairman3.3yrsAU$3.18m0.76% A$76.6m
John Fitzgerald
Lead Independent Director3.3yrsAU$204.32k0.0085% A$858.3k
Shirley In't Veld
Independent Non-Executive Director3.4yrsAU$174.32k0.0072% A$722.6k
Nicholas Cernotta
Independent Non-Executive Director0.6yrsno datano data
Peter O'Connor
Independent Non-Executive Director7.8yrsAU$149.32k0.054% A$5.4m
Mary Hackett
Independent Non-Executive Director0.6yrsno data0.0013% A$133.7k

3.3yrs

Average Tenure

60.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: NST's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NST insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.9%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Northern Star Resources Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Northern Star Resources Limited
  • Ticker: NST
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 2000
  • Industry: Gold
  • Sector: Materials
  • Market Cap: AU$10.050b
  • Shares outstanding: 740.05m
  • Website: https://www.nsrltd.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Northern Star Resources Limited
  • 388 Hay Street
  • Level 1
  • Subiaco
  • Western Australia
  • 6008
  • Australia

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
NSTASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDDec 2003
NS7DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURDec 2003
NESR.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDDec 2003
NSTCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDDec 2003

Biography

Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, processing, and sale of gold deposits in Australia. The company holds interests in the Pogo, Jundee, and Kalgoorlie operations, as well as Paulsens and Tanami projects. It has operations primarily in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Subiaco, Australia. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/17 10:34
End of Day Share Price2020/02/17 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.