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NST

Northern Star Resources ASX:NST Stock Report

Last Price

AU$8.48

Market Cap

AU$9.8b

7D

13.2%

1Y

-6.4%

Updated

05 Oct, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NST fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance1/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends3/6

NST Stock Overview

Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits in Australia.

Northern Star Resources Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Northern Star Resources
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceAU$8.48
52 Week HighAU$11.59
52 Week LowAU$6.60
Beta0.26
1 Month Change15.37%
3 Month Change21.14%
1 Year Change-6.40%
3 Year Change-29.27%
5 Year Change61.52%
Change since IPO3,754.56%

Recent News & Updates

Shareholder Returns

NSTAU Metals and MiningAU Market
7D13.2%5.9%3.8%
1Y-6.4%9.6%-7.1%

Return vs Industry: NST underperformed the Australian Metals and Mining industry which returned 8.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NST exceeded the Australian Market which returned -8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NST's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NST volatility
NST Average Weekly Movement5.8%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement11.4%
Market Average Movement9.4%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market4.3%

Stable Share Price: NST is less volatile than 75% of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NST's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
20003,383Stuart Tonkinhttps://www.nsrltd.com

Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits in Australia. It also sells refined gold. The company holds interests in the Pogo, Kalgoorlie, KCGM, Jundee, Thunderbox, and Carosue Dam operations, as well as Bronzewing projects.

Northern Star Resources Fundamentals Summary

How do Northern Star Resources's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NST fundamental statistics
Market CapAU$9.83b
Earnings (TTM)AU$429.80m
Revenue (TTM)AU$3.74b

22.9x

P/E Ratio

2.6x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NST income statement (TTM)
RevenueAU$3.74b
Cost of RevenueAU$3.22b
Gross ProfitAU$513.60m
Other ExpensesAU$83.80m
EarningsAU$429.80m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.37
Gross Margin13.75%
Net Profit Margin11.51%
Debt/Equity Ratio1.2%

How did NST perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

58%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NST?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NST key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.8x
PEG Ratio2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NST PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for NST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
NCM Newcrest Mining
11.9x-0.1%AU$15.9b
EVN Evolution Mining
11.9x16.1%AU$3.9b
PRU Perseus Mining
9.7x6.7%AU$2.3b
GOR Gold Road Resources
25.9x12.5%AU$1.5b
NST Northern Star Resources
22.9x11.7%AU$9.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (9.4x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.9x
Fair PE Ratio21.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NST (A$8.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$18.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Northern Star Resources forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


11.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NST's forecast earnings growth (11.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: NST's earnings (11.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NST's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NST's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NST's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NST's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7%).


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Past Performance

How has Northern Star Resources performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


39.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NST has a large one-off gain of A$271.6M impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: NST's current net profit margins (11.5%) are lower than last year (37.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NST's earnings have grown significantly by 39.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NST's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: NST had negative earnings growth (-58.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (33.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NST's Return on Equity (5.2%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Northern Star Resources's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NST's short term assets (A$1.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (A$776.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: NST's short term assets (A$1.4B) do not cover its long term liabilities (A$2.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NST has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: NST's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0% to 1.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NST's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (1640.2%).

Interest Coverage: NST's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (108.3x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Northern Star Resources's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


2.71%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Northern Star Resources Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Northern Star Resources dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Northern Star Resources)2.7%
Market Bottom 25% (AU)2.7%
Market Top 25% (AU)6.9%
Industry Average (Metals and Mining)9.7%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Northern Star Resources)3.3%

Notable Dividend: NST's dividend (2.71%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.79%).

High Dividend: NST's dividend (2.71%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.98%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NST's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NST's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (58.1%), NST's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (46.8%), NST's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Stuart Tonkin (46 yo)

1.25yrs

Tenure

AU$4,674,957

Compensation

Mr. Stuart Peter Tonkin, BEng (Hons) has been the Chief Executive Officer at Northern Star Resources Limited since October 29, 2016. He has been Managing Director and Director of Northern Star Resources Li...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Stuart Tonkin's Compensation vs Northern Star Resources Earnings
How has Stuart Tonkin's remuneration changed compared to Northern Star Resources's earnings?
DateTotal Comp.SalaryCompany Earnings
Jun 30 2022AU$5mAU$2m

AU$430m

Mar 31 2022n/an/a

AU$770m

Dec 31 2021n/an/a

AU$1b

Sep 30 2021n/an/a

AU$1b

Jun 30 2021AU$3mAU$1m

AU$1b

Mar 31 2021n/an/a

AU$674m

Dec 31 2020n/an/a

AU$315m

Sep 30 2020n/an/a

AU$286m

Jun 30 2020AU$2mAU$1m

AU$258m

Mar 31 2020n/an/a

AU$229m

Dec 31 2019n/an/a

AU$199m

Sep 30 2019n/an/a

AU$177m

Jun 30 2019AU$2mAU$590k

AU$155m

Mar 31 2019n/an/a

AU$176m

Dec 31 2018n/an/a

AU$197m

Sep 30 2018n/an/a

AU$196m

Jun 30 2018AU$1mAU$590k

AU$194m

Dec 31 2017n/an/a

AU$183m

Sep 30 2017n/an/a

AU$186m

Jun 30 2017AU$1mAU$553k

AU$189m

Dec 31 2016n/an/a

AU$178m

Sep 30 2016n/an/a

AU$172m

Jun 30 2016AU$893kAU$475k

AU$165m

Compensation vs Market: Stuart's total compensation ($USD3.04M) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD2.88M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Stuart's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NST's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: NST's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NST insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

ASX:NST Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
28 Sep 22BuyAU$79,912Nicholas CernottaIndividual11,335AU$7.05
01 Sep 22BuyAU$346,500Michael ChaneyIndividual45,000AU$7.70
31 Aug 22BuyAU$98,350Nicholas CernottaIndividual12,806AU$7.68
30 Aug 22BuyAU$49,746Sharon WarburtonIndividual6,537AU$7.65
02 Aug 22BuyAU$215,472,637Van Eck Associates CorporationCompany21,837,040AU$12.21
25 Jul 22SellAU$97,218,177Van Eck Associates CorporationCompany10,224,573AU$12.52
17 Jun 22BuyAU$31,287,680State Street Global Advisors, Inc.Company2,709,979AU$11.59
17 Jun 22SellAU$24,162,241State Street Global Advisors, Inc.Company2,109,000AU$11.59
20 May 22BuyAU$0BlackRock, Inc.Company29,053,449AU$12.20
20 May 22SellAU$15,493BlackRock, Inc.Company44,160,180AU$12.10
17 Mar 22BuyAU$218,167State Street Global Advisors, Inc.Company1,240,999AU$10.87
28 Jan 22BuyAU$143,580State Street Global Advisors, Inc.Company1,034,254AU$9.81
28 Jan 22SellAU$0State Street Global Advisors, Inc.Company1,773,679AU$9.73
16 Dec 21BuyAU$101,556State Street Global Advisors, Inc.Company1,577,824AU$10.80
09 Dec 21BuyAU$49,634Sharon WarburtonIndividual5,360AU$9.26
03 Dec 21BuyAU$442,905Stuart TonkinIndividual50,000AU$8.86
02 Dec 21BuyAU$45,500John RichardsIndividual5,000AU$9.10
28 Oct 21BuyAU$0The Vanguard Group, Inc.Company294,226AU$9.74
27 Oct 21SellAU$258,209The Vanguard Group, Inc.Company79,932AU$9.85

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of NST?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Private Companies10,843,2780.9%
Individual Insiders12,147,9451.0%
General Public554,361,13147.8%
Institutions582,295,49250.2%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 45.88% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
12.03%
BlackRock, Inc.
139,490,313A$1.2b-3.62%0.02%
6.7%
Van Eck Associates Corporation
77,675,122A$658.7m16.09%0.84%
6.4%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
74,250,913A$629.6m21.36%0.02%
5%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
57,961,015A$491.5m0%0.01%
1.6%
Invesco Ltd.
18,588,512A$157.6m-7.03%0.03%
1.54%
Colonial First State Investments Limited
17,865,307A$151.5m-11.94%1.16%
1.53%
Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC
17,776,272A$150.7m242.19%0.03%
1.09%
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
12,688,744A$107.6m0.2%0.01%
1.07%
Norges Bank Investment Management
12,383,507A$105.0m0%0.01%
0.94%
Australian Capital Equity Pty Ltd.
10,843,278A$92.0m-7.36%no data
0.87%
Ninety One UK Limited
10,094,973A$85.6m0%0.09%
0.75%
TD Asset Management, Inc.
8,700,482A$73.8m-0.07%0.05%
0.66%
Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation
7,664,224A$65.0m-16.6%0.75%
0.58%
Amundi Asset Management
6,759,469A$57.3m-14.97%0.01%
0.58%
Jupiter Fund Management Plc
6,688,221A$56.7m0.45%0.12%
0.56%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,539,279A$55.5m0.99%0.01%
0.56%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
6,500,451A$55.1m2.02%no data
0.52%
FMR LLC
6,028,224A$51.1m-14.04%no data
0.51%
William Beament
5,906,118A$50.1m0%no data
0.5%
1832 Asset Management L.P.
5,809,379A$49.3m0.07%0.05%
0.5%
GAMCO Investors, Inc.
5,771,757A$48.9m5.97%0.13%
0.49%
Baker Steel Capital Managers LLP
5,732,000A$48.6m-13.99%3.58%
0.31%
Sprott Asset Management LP
3,645,315A$30.9m0%0.95%
0.3%
Swedbank Robur Fonder AB
3,495,874A$29.6m0%0.03%
0.28%
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
3,208,613A$27.2m12.34%0.01%

Company Information

Northern Star Resources Limited's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Northern Star Resources Limited
  • Ticker: NST
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 2000
  • Industry: Gold
  • Sector: Materials
  • Implied Market Cap: AU$9.834b
  • Shares outstanding: 1.16b
  • Website: https://www.nsrltd.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Northern Star Resources Limited
  • 388 Hay Street
  • Level 1
  • Subiaco
  • Western Australia
  • 6008
  • Australia


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
NSTASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDDec 2003
NS7DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURDec 2003
NESR.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDDec 2003
NSTCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDDec 2003
NS7BRSE (Berne Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesCHCHFDec 2003
NSTY.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)SPON ADS EACH REP 1 ORD SHSUSUSDNov 2019
NS70DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)SPON ADS EACH REP 1 ORD SHSDEEURNov 2019

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/10/05 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/10/05 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2022/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.