Northern Star Resources Limited

ASX:NST Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$19.6b

Northern Star Resources Valuation

Is NST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NST (A$17.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$29.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NST?

Key metric: As NST is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NST. This is calculated by dividing NST's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NST's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.6x
EarningsAU$638.50m
Market CapAU$19.61b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.1x
NCM Newcrest Mining
17.2x12.2%AU$20.8b
EVN Evolution Mining
23.6x9.6%AU$9.8b
PRU Perseus Mining
7.4x-8.3%AU$3.6b
WGX Westgold Resources
28x35.2%AU$2.6b
NST Northern Star Resources
31.6x15.2%AU$19.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x) compared to the peer average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$224.57m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$180.60m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$178.04m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$66.01m
NST 31.6xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.6x
Fair PE Ratio22.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$17.56
AU$18.04
+2.8%
13.9%AU$21.95AU$11.60n/a18
Nov ’25AU$17.58
AU$18.00
+2.4%
13.8%AU$21.95AU$11.60n/a18
Oct ’25AU$15.89
AU$16.20
+1.9%
14.4%AU$21.00AU$11.60n/a18
Sep ’25AU$15.26
AU$15.44
+1.2%
11.7%AU$18.75AU$11.60n/a17
Aug ’25AU$14.21
AU$15.20
+7.0%
11.3%AU$18.65AU$11.60n/a17
Jul ’25AU$12.90
AU$15.85
+22.9%
12.7%AU$19.15AU$11.60n/a17
Jun ’25AU$14.35
AU$15.80
+10.1%
12.7%AU$20.00AU$11.60n/a17
May ’25AU$14.43
AU$15.48
+7.3%
12.9%AU$20.00AU$11.60n/a17
Apr ’25AU$14.47
AU$14.43
-0.3%
13.6%AU$20.00AU$11.30n/a17
Mar ’25AU$12.94
AU$14.30
+10.5%
13.6%AU$20.00AU$11.30n/a17
Feb ’25AU$13.37
AU$14.08
+5.3%
14.5%AU$20.00AU$11.30n/a16
Jan ’25AU$13.65
AU$13.55
-0.7%
14.8%AU$20.00AU$11.30n/a16
Dec ’24AU$12.44
AU$13.13
+5.6%
9.3%AU$15.00AU$11.20n/a16
Nov ’24AU$11.89
AU$13.03
+9.6%
9.9%AU$15.00AU$11.20AU$17.5815
Oct ’24AU$10.46
AU$12.53
+19.8%
11.6%AU$15.00AU$10.50AU$15.8915
Sep ’24AU$11.73
AU$12.44
+6.1%
10.5%AU$15.00AU$10.50AU$15.2615
Aug ’24AU$11.69
AU$12.84
+9.8%
9.9%AU$15.00AU$11.20AU$14.2115
Jul ’24AU$12.08
AU$13.74
+13.7%
10.0%AU$16.00AU$11.20AU$12.9014
Jun ’24AU$13.31
AU$13.75
+3.3%
10.3%AU$16.00AU$11.20AU$14.3514
May ’24AU$13.44
AU$13.75
+2.3%
10.0%AU$16.00AU$11.20AU$14.4315
Apr ’24AU$12.31
AU$12.35
+0.4%
12.0%AU$16.00AU$9.56AU$14.4714
Mar ’24AU$10.66
AU$12.10
+13.5%
9.6%AU$14.00AU$9.56AU$12.9414
Feb ’24AU$12.64
AU$12.09
-4.4%
9.5%AU$14.00AU$9.56AU$13.3715
Jan ’24AU$10.91
AU$11.18
+2.5%
10.9%AU$14.00AU$9.40AU$13.6515
Dec ’23AU$10.92
AU$11.13
+1.9%
11.2%AU$14.00AU$9.40AU$12.4415
Nov ’23AU$8.84
AU$10.56
+19.4%
12.7%AU$14.00AU$9.25AU$11.8915

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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