Capricorn Metals Ltd

ASX:CMM Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.7b

Capricorn Metals Valuation

Is CMM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMM (A$6.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$16.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMM?

Key metric: As CMM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMM. This is calculated by dividing CMM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.7x
EarningsAU$87.14m
Market CapAU$2.68b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.2x
EMR Emerald Resources
28.8x38.9%AU$2.4b
WGX Westgold Resources
28.5x35.2%AU$2.7b
GOR Gold Road Resources
20x20.9%AU$2.1b
PRU Perseus Mining
7.4x-8.3%AU$3.7b
CMM Capricorn Metals
30.7x24.3%AU$2.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the peer average (21.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.9x-13.3%US$243.72m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$181.28m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$176.74m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$68.10m
CMM 30.7xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.7x
Fair PE Ratio22.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.52
AU$7.20
+10.4%
8.5%AU$8.30AU$6.20n/a7
Nov ’25AU$6.50
AU$7.13
+9.6%
7.0%AU$7.60AU$6.15n/a6
Oct ’25AU$5.84
AU$6.36
+8.9%
7.5%AU$7.20AU$5.55n/a7
Sep ’25AU$5.99
AU$5.82
-2.8%
9.4%AU$6.60AU$5.20n/a7
Aug ’25AU$5.44
AU$5.82
+7.0%
9.4%AU$6.60AU$5.20n/a7
Jul ’25AU$4.88
AU$5.58
+14.3%
10.9%AU$6.53AU$4.90n/a7
Jun ’25AU$4.78
AU$5.53
+15.6%
12.4%AU$6.55AU$4.70n/a7
May ’25AU$4.75
AU$5.53
+16.3%
12.4%AU$6.55AU$4.70n/a7
Apr ’25AU$5.15
AU$5.06
-1.8%
10.3%AU$5.95AU$4.50n/a7
Mar ’25AU$4.80
AU$5.07
+5.6%
10.5%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a7
Feb ’25AU$4.50
AU$4.86
+8.0%
7.8%AU$5.75AU$4.50n/a7
Jan ’25AU$4.71
AU$4.91
+4.2%
8.9%AU$5.70AU$4.15n/a7
Dec ’24AU$4.74
AU$4.88
+2.9%
7.9%AU$5.50AU$4.15n/a7
Nov ’24AU$4.67
AU$4.86
+4.1%
8.2%AU$5.50AU$4.15AU$6.507
Oct ’24AU$4.12
AU$4.87
+18.3%
6.5%AU$5.40AU$4.40AU$5.847
Sep ’24AU$4.54
AU$4.87
+7.2%
6.9%AU$5.40AU$4.40AU$5.996
Aug ’24AU$4.44
AU$4.87
+9.6%
6.9%AU$5.40AU$4.40AU$5.446
Jul ’24AU$4.03
AU$4.96
+23.1%
7.3%AU$5.65AU$4.60AU$4.885
Jun ’24AU$4.45
AU$4.99
+12.1%
8.0%AU$5.65AU$4.60AU$4.784
May ’24AU$4.36
AU$4.93
+13.1%
8.6%AU$5.65AU$4.60AU$4.754
Apr ’24AU$4.76
AU$4.63
-2.7%
5.7%AU$4.90AU$4.20AU$5.154
Mar ’24AU$3.88
AU$4.48
+15.3%
4.8%AU$4.75AU$4.20AU$4.804
Feb ’24AU$4.55
AU$4.48
-1.6%
4.8%AU$4.75AU$4.20AU$4.504
Jan ’24AU$4.60
AU$4.01
-12.8%
4.9%AU$4.20AU$3.70AU$4.714
Dec ’23AU$4.45
AU$3.96
-11.0%
4.1%AU$4.15AU$3.70AU$4.744
Nov ’23AU$3.47
AU$3.73
+7.3%
4.8%AU$4.00AU$3.50AU$4.674

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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