Capricorn Metals Ltd

ASX:CMM Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.6b

Capricorn Metals Valuation

Is CMM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMM (A$6.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$16.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMM?

Key metric: As CMM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMM. This is calculated by dividing CMM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30.2x
EarningsAU$87.14m
Market CapAU$2.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.3x
EMR Emerald Resources
25.7x38.9%AU$2.2b
GOR Gold Road Resources
21.3x21.5%AU$2.2b
RMS Ramelius Resources
11.3x-4.2%AU$2.4b
PRU Perseus Mining
6.7x-9.3%AU$3.5b
CMM Capricorn Metals
30.2x24.3%AU$2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x) compared to the peer average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$205.93m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.7xn/aUS$165.31m
GRR Grange Resources
2.4xn/aUS$158.93m
PTN Patronus Resources
1.9xn/aUS$51.10m
CMM 30.2xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.40
AU$7.23
+12.9%
8.3%AU$8.30AU$6.20n/a7
Dec ’25AU$6.49
AU$7.20
+10.9%
8.5%AU$8.30AU$6.20n/a7
Nov ’25AU$6.50
AU$7.13
+9.6%
7.0%AU$7.60AU$6.15n/a6
Oct ’25AU$5.84
AU$6.36
+8.9%
7.5%AU$7.20AU$5.55n/a7
Sep ’25AU$5.99
AU$5.82
-2.8%
9.4%AU$6.60AU$5.20n/a7
Aug ’25AU$5.44
AU$5.82
+7.0%
9.4%AU$6.60AU$5.20n/a7
Jul ’25AU$4.88
AU$5.58
+14.3%
10.9%AU$6.53AU$4.90n/a7
Jun ’25AU$4.78
AU$5.53
+15.6%
12.4%AU$6.55AU$4.70n/a7
May ’25AU$4.75
AU$5.53
+16.3%
12.4%AU$6.55AU$4.70n/a7
Apr ’25AU$5.15
AU$5.06
-1.8%
10.3%AU$5.95AU$4.50n/a7
Mar ’25AU$4.80
AU$5.07
+5.6%
10.5%AU$6.00AU$4.50n/a7
Feb ’25AU$4.50
AU$4.86
+8.0%
7.8%AU$5.75AU$4.50n/a7
Jan ’25AU$4.71
AU$4.91
+4.2%
8.9%AU$5.70AU$4.15n/a7
Dec ’24AU$4.74
AU$4.88
+2.9%
7.9%AU$5.50AU$4.15AU$6.497
Nov ’24AU$4.67
AU$4.86
+4.1%
8.2%AU$5.50AU$4.15AU$6.507
Oct ’24AU$4.12
AU$4.87
+18.3%
6.5%AU$5.40AU$4.40AU$5.847
Sep ’24AU$4.54
AU$4.87
+7.2%
6.9%AU$5.40AU$4.40AU$5.996
Aug ’24AU$4.44
AU$4.87
+9.6%
6.9%AU$5.40AU$4.40AU$5.446
Jul ’24AU$4.03
AU$4.96
+23.1%
7.3%AU$5.65AU$4.60AU$4.885
Jun ’24AU$4.45
AU$4.99
+12.1%
8.0%AU$5.65AU$4.60AU$4.784
May ’24AU$4.36
AU$4.93
+13.1%
8.6%AU$5.65AU$4.60AU$4.754
Apr ’24AU$4.76
AU$4.63
-2.7%
5.7%AU$4.90AU$4.20AU$5.154
Mar ’24AU$3.88
AU$4.48
+15.3%
4.8%AU$4.75AU$4.20AU$4.804
Feb ’24AU$4.55
AU$4.48
-1.6%
4.8%AU$4.75AU$4.20AU$4.504
Jan ’24AU$4.60
AU$4.01
-12.8%
4.9%AU$4.20AU$3.70AU$4.714
Dec ’23AU$4.45
AU$3.96
-11.0%
4.1%AU$4.15AU$3.70AU$4.744

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 02:15
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Capricorn Metals Ltd is covered by 11 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mollie UrquhartBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
April LowisBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Daniel MorganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited