Emerald Resources Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of EMR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

EMR (A$3.67) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$36.09)

Is EMR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EMR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EMR (A$3.67) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$36.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EMR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EMR?

Key metric: As EMR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EMR. This is calculated by dividing EMR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EMR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	28.6x
Earnings	AU$84.27m
Market Cap	AU$2.41b

EMR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.5x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EMR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EMR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.2x
CMM Capricorn Metals	30.8x	24.3%	AU$2.7b
GOR Gold Road Resources	19.9x	20.9%	AU$2.1b
OBM Ora Banda Mining	50.8x	38.8%	AU$1.4b
RMS Ramelius Resources	11.1x	-2.9%	AU$2.4b
EMR Emerald Resources	28.6x	38.9%	AU$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EMR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the peer average (28.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EMR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated	1.7x	-13.3%	US$225.14m
GRR Grange Resources	2.6x	n/a	US$181.06m
RHI Red Hill Minerals	1.8x	n/a	US$179.75m
PTN Patronus Resources	2.4x	n/a	US$68.31m

9 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EMR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EMR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EMR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	28.6x
Fair PE Ratio	30.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EMR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EMR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$3.67	AU$4.53 +23.5%	9.1%	AU$5.00	AU$4.00	n/a	3
Nov ’25	AU$4.16	AU$4.50 +8.2%	10.1%	AU$5.00	AU$3.90	n/a	3
Oct ’25	AU$3.84	AU$4.12 +7.2%	12.3%	AU$4.50	AU$3.40	n/a	3
Sep ’25	AU$4.00	AU$4.12 +2.9%	12.3%	AU$4.50	AU$3.40	n/a	3
Aug ’25	AU$3.70	AU$4.08 +10.4%	11.9%	AU$4.50	AU$3.40	n/a	3
Jul ’25	AU$3.46	AU$4.12 +19.0%	12.6%	AU$4.60	AU$3.40	n/a	3
Feb ’25	AU$3.06	AU$2.65 -13.4%	9.4%	AU$2.90	AU$2.40	n/a	2
Jan ’25	AU$3.01	AU$2.65 -12.0%	9.4%	AU$2.90	AU$2.40	n/a	2
Dec ’24	AU$2.80	AU$2.65 -5.4%	9.4%	AU$2.90	AU$2.40	n/a	2
Nov ’24	AU$2.61	AU$2.60 -0.4%	7.7%	AU$2.80	AU$2.40	AU$4.16	2
Oct ’24	AU$2.70	AU$2.55 -5.6%	5.9%	AU$2.70	AU$2.40	AU$3.84	2
Sep ’24	AU$2.46	AU$2.55 +3.7%	5.9%	AU$2.70	AU$2.40	AU$4.00	2
Aug ’24	AU$2.31	AU$2.53 +9.3%	5.0%	AU$2.65	AU$2.40	AU$3.70	2
Jul ’24	AU$2.05	AU$2.38 +15.9%	5.3%	AU$2.50	AU$2.25	AU$3.46	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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