Evolution Mining Limited

ASX:EVN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$9.8b

Evolution Mining Valuation

Is EVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EVN (A$5.02) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$3.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EVN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EVN?

Key metric: As EVN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EVN. This is calculated by dividing EVN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EVN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.6x
EarningsAU$422.27m
Market CapAU$9.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EVN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21x
NST Northern Star Resources
31.6x15.2%AU$19.6b
PRU Perseus Mining
7.4x-8.3%AU$3.6b
NCM Newcrest Mining
17.2x12.2%AU$20.8b
WGX Westgold Resources
28x35.2%AU$2.6b
EVN Evolution Mining
23.6x9.6%AU$9.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the peer average (22.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$224.57m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$180.60m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$178.04m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$66.01m
EVN 23.6xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EVN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EVN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.6x
Fair PE Ratio20.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$5.02
AU$4.59
-8.6%
13.9%AU$5.25AU$3.00n/a16
Nov ’25AU$5.13
AU$4.58
-10.6%
13.9%AU$5.20AU$3.00n/a16
Oct ’25AU$4.57
AU$4.09
-10.6%
12.9%AU$5.00AU$3.00n/a16
Sep ’25AU$4.24
AU$3.91
-7.8%
13.2%AU$4.70AU$3.00n/a17
Aug ’25AU$4.01
AU$3.91
-2.5%
12.6%AU$4.70AU$3.00n/a17
Jul ’25AU$3.42
AU$3.81
+11.4%
12.1%AU$4.40AU$2.84n/a17
Jun ’25AU$3.92
AU$3.97
+1.2%
12.6%AU$4.60AU$3.00n/a17
May ’25AU$3.92
AU$3.98
+1.6%
15.6%AU$4.90AU$3.00n/a17
Apr ’25AU$3.58
AU$3.58
-0.1%
12.4%AU$4.30AU$2.90n/a17
Mar ’25AU$2.96
AU$3.52
+18.8%
11.7%AU$4.20AU$2.90n/a17
Feb ’25AU$3.17
AU$3.56
+12.2%
11.4%AU$4.20AU$2.90n/a16
Jan ’25AU$3.96
AU$3.73
-5.8%
13.5%AU$4.50AU$2.90n/a14
Dec ’24AU$4.04
AU$3.66
-9.3%
10.9%AU$4.40AU$3.00n/a16
Nov ’24AU$3.59
AU$3.60
+0.2%
11.2%AU$4.40AU$3.00AU$5.1316
Oct ’24AU$3.29
AU$3.57
+8.6%
12.0%AU$4.40AU$3.00AU$4.5716
Sep ’24AU$3.63
AU$3.50
-3.5%
13.3%AU$4.40AU$2.50AU$4.2416
Aug ’24AU$3.79
AU$3.47
-8.4%
13.8%AU$4.40AU$2.50AU$4.0116
Jul ’24AU$3.22
AU$3.34
+3.7%
16.0%AU$4.20AU$2.20AU$3.4215
Jun ’24AU$3.46
AU$3.24
-6.3%
15.8%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$3.9215
May ’24AU$3.51
AU$3.26
-7.0%
15.8%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$3.9217
Apr ’24AU$3.12
AU$3.11
-0.5%
17.6%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$3.5816
Mar ’24AU$2.83
AU$3.07
+8.5%
17.1%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$2.9615
Feb ’24AU$3.17
AU$3.25
+2.6%
18.1%AU$4.60AU$2.40AU$3.1716
Jan ’24AU$2.98
AU$2.87
-3.8%
24.7%AU$4.60AU$1.95AU$3.9616
Dec ’23AU$2.86
AU$2.82
-1.2%
24.7%AU$4.60AU$1.95AU$4.0416
Nov ’23AU$2.09
AU$2.71
+29.6%
27.5%AU$4.60AU$1.95AU$3.5916

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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