Evolution Mining Limited

ASX:EVN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$9.7b

Evolution Mining Valuation

Is EVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EVN (A$4.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EVN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EVN?

Key metric: As EVN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EVN. This is calculated by dividing EVN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EVN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.9x
EarningsAU$422.27m
Market CapAU$9.69b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EVN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.1x
NST Northern Star Resources
28x17.2%AU$17.9b
PRU Perseus Mining
6.8x-9.3%AU$3.5b
NCM Newcrest Mining
17.2x12.2%AU$20.8b
WGX Westgold Resources
28.5x35.3%AU$2.7b
EVN Evolution Mining
22.9x9.3%AU$9.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the peer average (21.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$207.51m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.7xn/aUS$164.49m
GRR Grange Resources
2.4xn/aUS$158.91m
PTN Patronus Resources
1.9xn/aUS$51.10m
EVN 22.9xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EVN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EVN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.9x
Fair PE Ratio19.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.87
AU$4.80
-1.5%
14.9%AU$6.00AU$3.15n/a16
Dec ’25AU$5.06
AU$4.60
-9.1%
14.1%AU$5.25AU$3.00n/a16
Nov ’25AU$5.13
AU$4.58
-10.6%
13.9%AU$5.20AU$3.00n/a16
Oct ’25AU$4.57
AU$4.09
-10.6%
12.9%AU$5.00AU$3.00n/a16
Sep ’25AU$4.24
AU$3.91
-7.8%
13.2%AU$4.70AU$3.00n/a17
Aug ’25AU$4.01
AU$3.91
-2.5%
12.6%AU$4.70AU$3.00n/a17
Jul ’25AU$3.42
AU$3.81
+11.4%
12.1%AU$4.40AU$2.84n/a17
Jun ’25AU$3.92
AU$3.97
+1.2%
12.6%AU$4.60AU$3.00n/a17
May ’25AU$3.92
AU$3.98
+1.6%
15.6%AU$4.90AU$3.00n/a17
Apr ’25AU$3.58
AU$3.58
-0.1%
12.4%AU$4.30AU$2.90n/a17
Mar ’25AU$2.96
AU$3.52
+18.8%
11.7%AU$4.20AU$2.90n/a17
Feb ’25AU$3.17
AU$3.56
+12.2%
11.4%AU$4.20AU$2.90n/a16
Jan ’25AU$3.96
AU$3.73
-5.8%
13.5%AU$4.50AU$2.90n/a14
Dec ’24AU$4.04
AU$3.66
-9.3%
10.9%AU$4.40AU$3.00AU$5.0616
Nov ’24AU$3.59
AU$3.60
+0.2%
11.2%AU$4.40AU$3.00AU$5.1316
Oct ’24AU$3.29
AU$3.57
+8.6%
12.0%AU$4.40AU$3.00AU$4.5716
Sep ’24AU$3.63
AU$3.50
-3.5%
13.3%AU$4.40AU$2.50AU$4.2416
Aug ’24AU$3.79
AU$3.47
-8.4%
13.8%AU$4.40AU$2.50AU$4.0116
Jul ’24AU$3.22
AU$3.34
+3.7%
16.0%AU$4.20AU$2.20AU$3.4215
Jun ’24AU$3.46
AU$3.24
-6.3%
15.8%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$3.9215
May ’24AU$3.51
AU$3.26
-7.0%
15.8%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$3.9217
Apr ’24AU$3.12
AU$3.11
-0.5%
17.6%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$3.5816
Mar ’24AU$2.83
AU$3.07
+8.5%
17.1%AU$4.00AU$2.30AU$2.9615
Feb ’24AU$3.17
AU$3.25
+2.6%
18.1%AU$4.60AU$2.40AU$3.1716
Jan ’24AU$2.98
AU$2.87
-3.8%
24.7%AU$4.60AU$1.95AU$3.9616
Dec ’23AU$2.86
AU$2.82
-1.2%
24.7%AU$4.60AU$1.95AU$4.0416

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 00:57
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Evolution Mining Limited is covered by 38 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kurt WordenAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Mollie UrquhartBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited