Syrah Resources (ASX:SYR) Is Up 38.3% After China Tightens Graphite Export Controls – What's Changed

• Earlier this week, new Chinese export controls on graphite and lithium battery components prompted analysts at Macquarie to upgrade Syrah Resources, highlighting the company's exposure to one of the world's largest natural graphite operations.
• This move underscores Syrah Resources' unique position to benefit from global supply chain shifts in the graphite market amid evolving international trade policies.
• We'll now look at how these Chinese export restrictions could reshape Syrah's investment narrative and global demand outlook.

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Syrah Resources Investment Narrative Recap

To be confident as a Syrah Resources shareholder, you need to believe in a shift toward ex-China supply chains for battery materials, where the company’s large-scale natural graphite operation in Mozambique and its U.S.-based Vidalia project could significantly benefit from tightening trade restrictions. The announcement of new Chinese export controls has acted as a material short-term catalyst, supporting analyst expectations of higher demand for Syrah’s supply, though operational risks at the Balama site and ongoing cash flow constraints remain important near-term hurdles.

Recently, Syrah completed a follow-on equity offering raising A$70 million in August 2025, strengthening its liquidity position. This injection could help it navigate the increased working capital needs and fund ongoing production ramp-ups at Balama and Vidalia, both of which are central to capturing opportunities arising from changes in global graphite supply chains.

By contrast, unresolved production risks at Balama are a factor investors should be aware of, especially if...

Read the full narrative on Syrah Resources (it's free!)

Syrah Resources' outlook projects $303.0 million in revenue and $57.6 million in earnings by 2028. This assumes an annual revenue growth rate of 112.6% and a $182.9 million increase in earnings from the current -$125.3 million.

Uncover how Syrah Resources' forecasts yield a A$0.475 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Syrah’s fair value between A$0.25 and A$44.74 per share, with opinions spanning over A$44. Confirmed policy shifts are now in play but supply disruptions at Balama could weigh on these diverse outlooks, so consider several perspectives before making decisions.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Syrah Resources - why the stock might be worth 40% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Syrah Resources Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Syrah Resources research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Syrah Resources research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Syrah Resources' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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