Stock Analysis

The 10% return this week takes Red 5's (ASX:RED) shareholders five-year gains to 190%

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For example, the Red 5 Limited (ASX:RED) share price has soared 183% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. It's even up 10% in the last week.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Red 5

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last half decade, Red 5 became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Red 5 share price is up 86% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 102% each year. This EPS growth is higher than the 23% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:RED Earnings Per Share Growth February 28th 2024

We know that Red 5 has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Red 5 stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Red 5's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Red 5 hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 190% exceeds its share price return of 183%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Red 5 shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 150% over the last year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 24% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Red 5 better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Red 5 , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About ASX:VAU

Vault Minerals

Engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate in Australia and Canada.

Flawless balance sheet and good value.

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