How Investors May Respond To Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Partnering on U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Supply Chain

• On October 8, 2025, Noveon Magnetics and Lynas Rare Earths announced the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding to form a partnership aimed at developing a scalable, domestic U.S. supply chain for rare earth permanent magnets across defense, automotive, and industrial sectors.
• This partnership responds directly to recent supply chain disruptions and new Chinese export restrictions, positioning Lynas as a critical supplier for U.S. national defense and commercial electrification priorities.
• We'll explore how Lynas's entry into the U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain could reshape its investment narrative and policy relevance.

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Lynas Rare Earths Investment Narrative Recap

Lynas Rare Earths relies on continued Western government support for critical mineral supply chain diversification to help secure long-term contracts and protect pricing power. The Noveon Magnetics partnership in the U.S. directly addresses this catalyst, but supply continuity and government backing remain the critical short-term driver and risk for the business. For now, the announcement reinforces Lynas’s policy relevance without removing the possibility of political or regulatory shifts disrupting future demand visibility.

One relevant recent event is Lynas’s A$182.57 million equity raise on September 19, 2025. This capital injection bolsters the company’s ability to expand downstream processing and meet requirements of new partnerships, while also providing a financial buffer to pursue further U.S. supply chain projects, and to weather ongoing market volatility. However, it does not mitigate the risk of Western policy support weakening if geopolitical priorities shift.

Yet, if Western government support unexpectedly falters, investors should be aware that ...

Read the full narrative on Lynas Rare Earths (it's free!)

Lynas Rare Earths' outlook anticipates A$1.9 billion in revenue and A$732.6 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on a forecasted annual revenue growth rate of 50.1% and an increase in earnings of A$724.6 million from current earnings of A$8.0 million.

Uncover how Lynas Rare Earths' forecasts yield a A$14.23 fair value, a 30% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate fair value for Lynas Rare Earths from A$8.90 up to A$35.02 per share. With such varied opinions, remember that future policy support and customer demand are crucial factors in the company's outlook, explore several perspectives to see how views differ.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on Lynas Rare Earths - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Lynas Rare Earths Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Lynas Rare Earths research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Lynas Rare Earths research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Lynas Rare Earths' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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