Lynas Rare Earths Limited

ASX:LYC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.5b

Lynas Rare Earths Valuation

Is LYC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LYC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LYC (A$6.87) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$3.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LYC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LYC?

Key metric: As LYC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LYC. This is calculated by dividing LYC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LYC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio76x
EarningsAU$84.51m
Market CapAU$6.52b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LYC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LYC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.8x
MIN Mineral Resources
52.8x39.6%AU$6.8b
ILU Iluka Resources
8.4x5.5%AU$2.3b
PLS Pilbara Minerals
32.8x25.8%AU$8.7b
NIC Nickel Industries
25.2x49.7%AU$3.9b
LYC Lynas Rare Earths
76x42.7%AU$6.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LYC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (76x) compared to the peer average (29.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LYC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$224.57m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$180.60m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$178.04m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$66.01m
LYC 76.0xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LYC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (76x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LYC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LYC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio76x
Fair PE Ratio32.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LYC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (76x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LYC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.87
AU$7.55
+9.9%
18.0%AU$9.50AU$5.00n/a15
Nov ’25AU$7.78
AU$7.72
-0.8%
21.9%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a15
Oct ’25AU$7.89
AU$7.54
-4.4%
23.0%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a15
Sep ’25AU$7.06
AU$7.46
+5.6%
22.1%AU$12.00AU$4.95n/a16
Aug ’25AU$6.29
AU$7.09
+12.7%
23.9%AU$12.00AU$4.75n/a16
Jul ’25AU$6.16
AU$7.24
+17.5%
22.6%AU$12.00AU$4.85n/a16
Jun ’25AU$6.66
AU$7.27
+9.2%
21.7%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a16
May ’25AU$6.50
AU$7.21
+11.0%
22.6%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a15
Apr ’25AU$5.69
AU$7.17
+25.9%
14.0%AU$10.00AU$5.00n/a14
Mar ’25AU$6.11
AU$7.64
+25.1%
13.4%AU$10.00AU$6.50n/a13
Feb ’25AU$5.68
AU$8.25
+45.3%
19.2%AU$12.00AU$6.50n/a12
Jan ’25AU$7.16
AU$8.98
+25.5%
14.9%AU$12.00AU$7.20n/a12
Dec ’24AU$6.35
AU$9.17
+44.4%
15.1%AU$12.00AU$7.20n/a13
Nov ’24AU$7.09
AU$9.22
+30.1%
15.3%AU$12.00AU$7.20AU$7.7813
Oct ’24AU$6.79
AU$9.05
+33.3%
16.5%AU$12.00AU$6.50AU$7.8913
Sep ’24AU$7.24
AU$9.07
+25.3%
16.2%AU$12.00AU$6.50AU$7.0613
Aug ’24AU$6.93
AU$9.11
+31.5%
18.2%AU$12.00AU$6.60AU$6.2912
Jul ’24AU$6.85
AU$9.06
+32.3%
17.5%AU$12.00AU$6.70AU$6.1613
Jun ’24AU$7.45
AU$9.14
+22.7%
17.0%AU$12.00AU$6.70AU$6.6613
May ’24AU$6.42
AU$8.54
+33.0%
20.7%AU$12.00AU$6.40AU$6.5012
Apr ’24AU$6.34
AU$8.96
+41.3%
20.1%AU$12.00AU$6.60AU$5.6912
Mar ’24AU$8.37
AU$9.59
+14.6%
19.1%AU$12.78AU$6.70AU$6.1112
Feb ’24AU$9.70
AU$10.08
+3.9%
20.6%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$5.6811
Jan ’24AU$7.85
AU$9.57
+21.9%
22.9%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$7.1610
Dec ’23AU$8.80
AU$9.54
+8.4%
23.1%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$6.3510
Nov ’23AU$8.64
AU$9.43
+9.2%
21.6%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$7.0910

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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