Stock Analysis

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Ticks All The Boxes When It Comes To Earnings Growth

ASX:BHP
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like BHP Group (ASX:BHP). Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.

Check out our latest analysis for BHP Group

How Fast Is BHP Group Growing?

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you'd expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. Impressively, BHP Group has grown EPS by 24% per year, compound, in the last three years. As a general rule, we'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be beaming.

Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. To cut to the chase BHP Group's EBIT margins dropped last year, and so did its revenue. Shareholders will be hoping for a change in fortunes if they're looking for profit growth.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:BHP Earnings and Revenue History April 18th 2023

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for BHP Group.

Are BHP Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Investors are always searching for a vote of confidence in the companies they hold and insider buying is one of the key indicators for optimism on the market. Because often, the purchase of stock is a sign that the buyer views it as undervalued. Of course, we can never be sure what insiders are thinking, we can only judge their actions.

Not only did BHP Group insiders refrain from selling stock during the year, but they also spent US$285k buying it. That's nice to see, because it suggests insiders are optimistic. It is also worth noting that it was Independent Non-Executive Chairman of the Board Ken MacKenzie who made the biggest single purchase, worth AU$250k, paying AU$40.98 per share.

The good news, alongside the insider buying, for BHP Group bulls is that insiders (collectively) have a meaningful investment in the stock. As a matter of fact, their holding is valued at US$65m. That's a lot of money, and no small incentive to work hard. Even though that's only about 0.03% of the company, it's enough money to indicate alignment between the leaders of the business and ordinary shareholders.

Should You Add BHP Group To Your Watchlist?

For growth investors, BHP Group's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. Not only that, but we can see that insiders both own a lot of, and are buying more shares in the company. So it's fair to say that this stock may well deserve a spot on your watchlist. Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for BHP Group (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

Keen growth investors love to see insider buying. Thankfully, BHP Group isn't the only one. You can see a a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About ASX:BHP

BHP Group

Operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally.

Outstanding track record and undervalued.