Has Medibank Private Limited's (ASX:MPL) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Medibank Private (ASX:MPL) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 6.0% over the last week. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study Medibank Private's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

View our latest analysis for Medibank Private

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Medibank Private is:

29% = AU$685m ÷ AU$2.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.29 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Medibank Private's Earnings Growth And 29% ROE

First thing first, we like that Medibank Private has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 13% the company's ROE is quite impressive. Probably as a result of this, Medibank Private was able to see a decent net income growth of 7.3% over the last five years.

We then compared Medibank Private's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 12% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for MPL? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Medibank Private Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 85% (or a retention ratio of 15%) for Medibank Private suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of its income to its shareholders.

Moreover, Medibank Private is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of nine years of paying a dividend. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 83%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Medibank Private's future ROE will be 24% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Medibank Private has some positive attributes. Its earnings have grown respectably as we saw earlier, which was likely due to the company reinvesting its earnings at a pretty high rate of return. However, given the high ROE, we do think that the company is reinvesting a small portion of its profits. This could likely be preventing the company from growing to its full extent. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.