Stock Analysis

Those who invested in Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX:FLT) three years ago are up 79%

ASX:FLT
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. Just take a look at Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX:FLT), which is up 79%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 37% (not including dividends).

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Flight Centre Travel Group

SWOT Analysis for Flight Centre Travel Group

Strength
  • Net debt to equity ratio below 40%.
Weakness
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Expected to breakeven next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Flight Centre Travel Group isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Flight Centre Travel Group actually saw its revenue drop by 34% per year over three years. Despite the lack of revenue growth, the stock has returned 21%, compound, over three years. If the company is cutting costs profitability could be on the horizon, but the revenue decline is a prima facie concern.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:FLT Earnings and Revenue Growth April 15th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Flight Centre Travel Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Flight Centre Travel Group shareholders are down 11% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.06%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 10% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Flight Centre Travel Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Flight Centre Travel Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.