Analysts Are Updating Their Endeavour Group Limited (ASX:EDV) Estimates After Its Yearly Results

Endeavour Group Limited (ASX:EDV) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.8% to AU$5.26 in the week after its latest yearly results. Endeavour Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of AU$12b and statutory earnings per share of AU$0.29, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Endeavour Group

Following last week's earnings report, Endeavour Group's 15 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be AU$12.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be AU$0.29, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$12.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.30 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$5.68, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Endeavour Group analyst has a price target of AU$6.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$4.69. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Endeavour Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Endeavour Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Endeavour Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Endeavour Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$5.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Endeavour Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Endeavour Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.