Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Breville Group Limited (ASX:BRG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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How Much Debt Does Breville Group Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 Breville Group had AU$205.4m of debt, an increase on AU$172.3m, over one year. However, it does have AU$84.2m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about AU$121.3m.
How Healthy Is Breville Group's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Breville Group had liabilities of AU$321.8m due within a year, and liabilities of AU$283.4m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had AU$84.2m in cash and AU$249.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total AU$271.4m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Since publicly traded Breville Group shares are worth a total of AU$3.91b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
With net debt sitting at just 0.67 times EBITDA, Breville Group is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And it boasts interest cover of 8.1 times, which is more than adequate. Fortunately, Breville Group grew its EBIT by 9.2% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Breville Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Breville Group reported free cash flow worth 9.7% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
Both Breville Group's ability to handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, and its interest cover gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. Having said that, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. Considering this range of data points, we think Breville Group is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Breville Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:BRG
Breville Group
Designs, develops, markets, and distributes small electrical kitchen appliances in the consumer products industry in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Flawless balance sheet with acceptable track record.