Earnings Not Telling The Story For Mader Group Limited (ASX:MAD) After Shares Rise 28%

Mader Group Limited (ASX:MAD) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 5.4% over the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, given around half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may consider Mader Group as a stock to potentially avoid with its 25.4x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Recent times have been advantageous for Mader Group as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Mader Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Mader Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Mader Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 31% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 158% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 14% per year during the coming three years according to the four analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 19% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Mader Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Mader Group's P/E

Mader Group's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Mader Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Mader Group you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.