Mader Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MAD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MAD (A$5.56) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$13.17)

Is MAD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MAD (A$5.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$13.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAD?

Key metric: As MAD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MAD. This is calculated by dividing MAD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MAD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	22.3x
Earnings	AU$50.42m
Market Cap	AU$1.18b

MAD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.9x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MAD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.2x
SGF SG Fleet Group	10.1x	7.3%	AU$894.3m
DOW Downer EDI	68.4x	22.0%	AU$3.9b
SUG Sugar Terminals	12.3x	n/a	AU$397.8m
BXB Brambles	22.1x	7.3%	AU$26.3b
MAD Mader Group	22.3x	15.5%	AU$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the peer average (28.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Commercial Services Industry?

18 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

18 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the Global Commercial Services industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.3x
Fair PE Ratio	19.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.