Stock Analysis

Strong week for Fluence (ASX:FLC) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of five-year loss

ASX:FLC
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Fluence Corporation Limited (ASX:FLC) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 93% in the last quarter. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. After all, the share price is down 52% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.

While the stock has risen 10% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

See our latest analysis for Fluence

Given that Fluence didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over five years, Fluence grew its revenue at 8.4% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. The share price, meanwhile, has fallen 9% compounded, over five years. That suggests the market is disappointed with the current growth rate. That could lead to an opportunity if the company is going to become profitable sooner rather than later.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:FLC Earnings and Revenue Growth February 15th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Fluence's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Fluence hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -45% exceeds its share price return of -52%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Fluence had a tough year, with a total loss of 6.5%, against a market gain of about 7.4%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 8% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Fluence that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Fluence is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.