DroneShield Future Growth
Future criteria checks 6/6
DroneShield is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 61% and 28.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 59.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 21% in 3 years.
Key information
61.0%
Earnings growth rate
59.94%
EPS growth rate
| Aerospace & Defense earnings growth | 17.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 28.8% |
| Future return on equity | 21.00% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 22 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 02
DRO: New CEO Transition Will Support Premium P/E And Bullish Outlook
Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for DroneShield to A$4.40. This reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate and future P/E expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 17
DRO: Leadership Transition Will Support Premium P/E And Bullish Outlook
Analysts have kept their A$4.50 price target for DroneShield unchanged, citing largely consistent assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E multiples compared with previous estimates. What's in the News DroneShield announced that long serving executive Angus Bean has been appointed CEO, moving from his previous C level roles including Chief Technology Officer, with employment on an ongoing basis from 8 April 2026 in line with his contract terms (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 02
DRO: Higher Revenue Outlook And Premium P/E Will Support Bullish Case
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for DroneShield from A$4.90 to A$4.50, reflecting updated assumptions for growth, profitability and future P/E, as well as a slightly adjusted discount rate. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Reduced from A$4.90 to A$4.50, a small cut to the central valuation estimate.
New Narrative • Apr 02
Counter Drone Demand And SaaS Shift Will Support Steady Prospects Without Exuberant Expectations
Catalysts About DroneShield DroneShield provides hardware and software systems for detecting and defeating drones and other unmanned threats across military, public safety and emerging civilian settings. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative • Mar 19
Recurring SaaS And Expanding Pipeline Will Reshape Counter Drone Market Trajectory
Catalysts About DroneShield DroneShield provides integrated hardware, software and SaaS solutions for detecting and defeating drones and other unmanned threats across military and civilian markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 18
DRO: Refined Discount Rate And P/E Assumptions Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have maintained their A$4.90 price target for DroneShield, with only minor tweaks to inputs such as discount rate and future P/E assumptions. This reflects largely unchanged views on the company’s long term earnings profile.
New Narrative • Mar 11
DroneShield's Growth Will Drive Revenue Up by 25.39% Amidst New Success
Morningstar snapshot from 11/03/2026: Fair value: A$2.95 Five-star price: A$1.36 — this is my entry point Current price: A$4.02 Valuation: Overvalued Uncertainty: Very High Economic moat: Narrow 2025 revenue: A$216.5m Revenue growth in 2025: 276% Cash balance: A$209.4m Shares outstanding: ~913m Gross margin: ~60.9% Operating margin: ~-1.9% My interest in DroneShield is based on the long-term need for counter-drone technology, but only at the right price. The current conflict involving Iran is another reminder that drones are now a real threat to military assets, energy infrastructure and broader regional security.Narrative Update • Mar 04
DRO: Higher Discount Rate And P/E Repricing Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for DroneShield to A$4.90 from A$5.00 as they factor in a higher discount rate, more moderate revenue growth expectations, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Trimmed slightly from A$5.00 to A$4.90.
New Narrative • Mar 01
DroneShield: From Tactical Supplier to Procurement Platform?
DroneShield sits in a part of defence that has moved from optional to operationally critical. The shift is not theoretical.New Narrative • Feb 25
Droneshield is ramping up , 267% revenue increase in 2025
DroneShield is no longer a speculative concept stock it’s positioning itself as a scalable counter-drone defence supplier during a structural global defence expansion cycle. The key shift is moving from lumpy contract wins to repeat institutional procurement, particularly across NATO and US defense channels.Narrative Update • Feb 18
DRO: Steady Fair Value And Earnings Outlook Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly trimmed their valuation on DroneShield, cutting the price target to A$5.00. They have refreshed assumptions around discount rates, growth and P/E multiples while keeping fair value estimates broadly in line with prior views.Narrative Update • Feb 03
DRO: Index Inclusion And Higher Growth Outlook Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target for DroneShield from A$4.70 to A$5.00. This reflects updated assumptions that include a slightly lower discount rate, modestly higher revenue growth expectations, a small reduction in projected profit margins, and a marginally higher future P/E.Analysis Article • Jan 27
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) 36% Share Price Surge
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 36% in the...Narrative Update • Jan 19
DRO: Index Inclusion And Stable Outlook Will Support Measured Future Upside Potential
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on DroneShield to reflect a minor adjustment in the discount rate and future P/E assumptions, while keeping their fair value estimate unchanged at A$4.70. Valuation Changes Fair Value: The fair value estimate is unchanged at A$4.70 per share.Narrative Update • Jan 05
DRO: Index Inclusion Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for DroneShield from A$5.15 to A$4.70, reflecting slightly higher assumed discount rates and a modestly lower future P/E multiple in their models. Valuation Changes Fair Value: reduced from A$5.15 to A$4.70 per share.Narrative Update • Dec 16
DRO: Index Inclusion And Defence Partnerships Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for DroneShield to $5.15, reflecting slightly higher long term growth and valuation assumptions, despite largely unchanged fair value estimates. What's in the News Critical Infrastructure Technologies signs a new NDA with DroneShield to integrate Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems capabilities into the Nexus 20 platform requested by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, advancing design work on a secure, resilient defence system (Key Developments) The Nexus 20 program, covering 50 platforms, moves forward with parallel telecommunications and C UAS integration in partnership frameworks that already include Babcock International, Nokia, and Ericsson (Key Developments) DroneShield is added to the S and P ASX 200 Index, which may increase its visibility and potential inclusion in institutional portfolios (Key Developments) DroneShield is also added to the S and P ASX 200 Industrials Sector Index, reinforcing its status as a notable participant in the Australian industrials universe (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at A$5.15 per share, indicating stable long term intrinsic value assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 02
DRO: Index Inclusions And New Partnerships Will Support Long-Term Profit Outlook
Analysts have maintained their price target for DroneShield at $5.15, citing consistent expectations for the company's growth and profitability metrics. What's in the News DroneShield and Critical Infrastructure Technologies Ltd.Analysis Article • Nov 19
DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) Share Price Is Still Matching Investor Opinion Despite 56% Slump
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Narrative Update • Nov 18
DRO: Future Telecom Partnerships Will Sustain Profit Margins And Broaden Market Presence
Analysts have reaffirmed DroneShield's fair value price target at $5.15, citing steady revenue and profit margin expectations as key factors that support their unchanged outlook. What's in the News DroneShield Limited and Critical Infrastructure Technologies Ltd.Narrative Update • Nov 04
DRO: Joining Major Indexes And Key Defense Contracts Will Drive Demand
Analysts have raised their price target for DroneShield from $4.45 to $5.15. They cite improved revenue growth expectations, even though the projected profit margin is now slightly lower.Narrative Update • Oct 20
Global And NATO Defense Demand Will Expand Counter-Drone Market
Analysts have raised their price target for DroneShield from $3.65 to $4.45 per share, citing stronger projected revenue growth and an updated outlook on future profitability. What's in the News Critical Infrastructure Technologies Ltd.Analysis Article • Sep 29
DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) Stocks Shoot Up 33% But Its P/S Still Looks Reasonable
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 33% gain in the last month alone...Analysis Article • Sep 02
Earnings Troubles May Signal Larger Issues for DroneShield (ASX:DRO) Shareholders
Investors were disappointed by DroneShield Limited's ( ASX:DRO ) latest earnings release. Our analysis has found some...New Narrative • Jul 27
Global Drone Demand Will Transform Defense And Civil Markets
Surging global demand, regulatory momentum, and diversified defense contracts position DroneShield for robust, recurring revenue growth and greater earnings stability.Analysis Article • Jul 25
After Leaping 42% DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar
Despite an already strong run, DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 42% in the...Analysis Article • Jun 26
Need To Know: Analysts Are Much More Bullish On DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO)
Shareholders in DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major...Analysis Article • May 21
DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) CEO Compensation Is Looking A Bit Stretched At The Moment
Key Insights DroneShield's Annual General Meeting to take place on 28th of May Salary of AU$663.3k is part of CEO Oleg...Analysis Article • Apr 26
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) 29% Share Price Surge
Despite an already strong run, DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the...Analysis Article • Feb 26
Market Participants Recognise DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) Revenues Pushing Shares 30% Higher
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 30% after a shaky period beforehand...Analysis Article • Jan 08
Market Participants Recognise DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) Revenues Pushing Shares 27% Higher
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the...Analysis Article • Oct 26
DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) Stocks Pounded By 29% But Not Lagging Industry On Growth Or Pricing
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a...Analysis Article • Aug 02
With A 41% Price Drop For DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) You'll Still Get What You Pay For
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have retraced a considerable 41% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of...Analysis Article • May 06
Is There Now An Opportunity In DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO)?
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of 106% in...Analysis Article • Apr 06
After Leaping 29% DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone...Analysis Article • Mar 26
Returns Are Gaining Momentum At DroneShield (ASX:DRO)
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • Jan 17
Investors Appear Satisfied With DroneShield Limited's (ASX:DRO) Prospects As Shares Rocket 26%
DroneShield Limited ( ASX:DRO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 571 | 94 | 101 | 145 | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 446 | 75 | 73 | 88 | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 365 | 35 | 13 | 38 | 2 |
| 12/31/2025 | 217 | 4 | -15 | 16 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 162 | 5 | -40 | -12 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 107 | 6 | -64 | -41 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 83 | 2 | -70 | -51 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 58 | -1 | -75 | -62 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 62 | 3 | -47 | -39 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 66 | 7 | -18 | -15 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 60 | 8 | -5 | -3 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 54 | 9 | 8 | 9 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 2 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 25 | 1 | -6 | -5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 21 | 0 | -4 | -3 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 17 | -1 | -3 | -2 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 12 | -5 | -5 | -4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 8 | -10 | -7 | -7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 9 | -8 | -7 | -7 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 11 | -5 | -7 | -6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 10 | -5 | -6 | -5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 9 | -5 | -5 | -5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 7 | -6 | -5 | -5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 6 | -6 | -5 | -5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 5 | -6 | -6 | -5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 5 | -6 | -7 | -6 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 4 | -7 | -7 | -6 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 4 | -8 | -6 | -5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 3 | -7 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 3 | -5 | N/A | -3 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 2 | -6 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 1 | -6 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1 | -6 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 1 | -6 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 0 | -6 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 0 | -5 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 0 | -5 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 0 | -5 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 0 | -5 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 0 | -5 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 0 | -4 | N/A | -3 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 0 | -3 | N/A | -2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 0 | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 0 | 0 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: DRO's forecast earnings growth (61% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).
Earnings vs Market: DRO's earnings (61% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12% per year).
High Growth Earnings: DRO's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: DRO's revenue (28.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: DRO's revenue (28.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: DRO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21%)
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/09 20:35 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
DroneShield Limited is covered by 4 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Daniel Laing | Bell Potter |
| Baxter Kirk | Bell Potter |
| William Richardson | Jefferies LLC |