National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) Just Released Its Half-Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) last week reported its latest interim results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of AU$10b and statutory earnings per share of AU$2.29. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for National Australia Bank

Following the latest results, National Australia Bank's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$20.4b in 2024. This would be a modest 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 4.6% to AU$2.17 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$20.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$2.16 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of AU$31.39, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on National Australia Bank, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$34.50 and the most bearish at AU$25.75 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that National Australia Bank is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting National Australia Bank's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.7% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that National Australia Bank is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$31.39, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for National Australia Bank going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that National Australia Bank is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.