National Australia Bank Limited

ASX:NAB Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$120.5b

National Australia Bank Valuation

Is NAB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NAB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NAB (A$39.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$42.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NAB is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NAB?

Key metric: As NAB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NAB. This is calculated by dividing NAB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NAB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.1x
EarningsAU$7.06b
Market CapAU$120.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NAB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NAB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.7x
WBC Westpac Banking
16.5x0.1%AU$113.4b
ANZ ANZ Group Holdings
14.7x3.3%AU$95.7b
CBA Commonwealth Bank of Australia
27.6x4.5%AU$261.5b
BFL BSP Financial Group
7.9xn/aAU$2.9b
NAB National Australia Bank
17.1x2.3%AU$120.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NAB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NAB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Banks Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NAB 17.1xIndustry Avg. 10.1xNo. of Companies164PE0612182430+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NAB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the Global Banks industry average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NAB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NAB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.1x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NAB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NAB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$39.51
AU$33.52
-15.2%
10.7%AU$38.40AU$26.50n/a14
Nov ’25AU$38.21
AU$32.86
-14.0%
10.7%AU$38.00AU$26.50n/a14
Oct ’25AU$37.13
AU$32.98
-11.2%
10.2%AU$38.00AU$26.50n/a15
Sep ’25AU$38.17
AU$32.46
-15.0%
9.2%AU$36.00AU$26.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$38.05
AU$31.98
-16.0%
8.9%AU$35.69AU$26.50n/a15
Jul ’25AU$36.07
AU$31.86
-11.7%
8.7%AU$35.69AU$26.50n/a15
Jun ’25AU$33.91
AU$31.80
-6.2%
8.8%AU$35.69AU$26.50n/a15
May ’25AU$33.79
AU$31.00
-8.3%
8.9%AU$34.30AU$25.75n/a14
Apr ’25AU$34.64
AU$30.97
-10.6%
9.1%AU$34.10AU$25.75n/a14
Mar ’25AU$34.04
AU$30.51
-10.4%
9.4%AU$34.10AU$25.75n/a14
Feb ’25AU$31.90
AU$29.36
-8.0%
7.7%AU$32.00AU$25.75n/a14
Jan ’25AU$30.70
AU$28.48
-7.2%
6.7%AU$31.50AU$25.75n/a14
Dec ’24AU$28.43
AU$28.42
-0.04%
6.9%AU$31.50AU$25.75n/a14
Nov ’24AU$28.16
AU$28.87
+2.5%
5.9%AU$31.50AU$26.00AU$38.2114
Oct ’24AU$29.07
AU$28.75
-1.1%
6.4%AU$31.50AU$25.00AU$37.1314
Sep ’24AU$28.90
AU$28.57
-1.2%
6.4%AU$31.50AU$25.00AU$38.1715
Aug ’24AU$28.58
AU$27.73
-3.0%
8.3%AU$31.50AU$23.00AU$38.0515
Jul ’24AU$26.37
AU$27.73
+5.2%
8.4%AU$31.50AU$23.00AU$36.0715
Jun ’24AU$26.04
AU$27.83
+6.9%
8.3%AU$31.50AU$23.00AU$33.9115
May ’24AU$29.19
AU$29.90
+2.4%
10.2%AU$35.00AU$23.00AU$33.7915
Apr ’24AU$27.72
AU$30.56
+10.2%
11.0%AU$35.42AU$23.00AU$34.6415
Mar ’24AU$29.38
AU$31.50
+7.2%
9.2%AU$35.42AU$23.00AU$34.0415
Feb ’24AU$31.73
AU$31.87
+0.4%
8.6%AU$35.60AU$24.00AU$31.9015
Jan ’24AU$30.06
AU$31.83
+5.9%
8.3%AU$35.41AU$24.00AU$30.7015
Dec ’23AU$31.68
AU$31.83
+0.5%
8.3%AU$35.41AU$24.00AU$28.4315
Nov ’23AU$32.70
AU$31.90
-2.4%
5.2%AU$34.81AU$29.00AU$28.1615

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Fremantle Community Financial Services

AU$294.7k

Engages in the operation of a branch of Bendigo Bank and Adelaide Bank pursuant to a franchise agreement with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited in Western Australia.

FCF

AU$0.40

7D

0%

1Y

n/a

East Gosford & Districts Financial Services

AU$402.9k

Provides community banking services under management rights to operate a franchised branch of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited.

EGF

AU$0.41

7D

0%

1Y

n/a

Sunshine Coast Community Financial Services

AU$1.3m

Operates as a franchisee of Bendigo Bank that provides banking, and financial products and services to individuals, businesses, and organizations in Australia.

SSC

AU$0.77

7D

0%

1Y

n/a