National Australia Bank Limited

ASX:NAB Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$111.5b

National Australia Bank Valuation

Is NAB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NAB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NAB (A$36.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$41.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NAB is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NAB?

Key metric: As NAB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NAB. This is calculated by dividing NAB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NAB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.8x
EarningsAU$7.06b
Market CapAU$111.46b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NAB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NAB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
WBC Westpac Banking
15.6x-0.06%AU$108.7b
ANZ ANZ Group Holdings
12.7x3.3%AU$83.1b
CBA Commonwealth Bank of Australia
26.5x4.4%AU$251.2b
BFL BSP Financial Group
7.8xn/aAU$3.1b
NAB National Australia Bank
15.8x2.3%AU$111.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NAB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NAB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Banks Industry?

17 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NAB 15.8xIndustry Avg. 10.0xNo. of Companies168PE0612182430+
17 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NAB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the Global Banks industry average (10x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NAB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NAB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.8x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NAB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NAB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$36.37
AU$33.68
-7.4%
11.1%AU$38.40AU$26.50n/a14
Dec ’25AU$39.10
AU$33.52
-14.3%
10.7%AU$38.40AU$26.50n/a14
Nov ’25AU$38.21
AU$32.86
-14.0%
10.7%AU$38.00AU$26.50n/a14
Oct ’25AU$37.13
AU$32.98
-11.2%
10.2%AU$38.00AU$26.50n/a15
Sep ’25AU$38.17
AU$32.46
-15.0%
9.2%AU$36.00AU$26.50n/a15
Aug ’25AU$38.05
AU$31.98
-16.0%
8.9%AU$35.69AU$26.50n/a15
Jul ’25AU$36.07
AU$31.86
-11.7%
8.7%AU$35.69AU$26.50n/a15
Jun ’25AU$33.91
AU$31.80
-6.2%
8.8%AU$35.69AU$26.50n/a15
May ’25AU$33.79
AU$31.00
-8.3%
8.9%AU$34.30AU$25.75n/a14
Apr ’25AU$34.64
AU$30.97
-10.6%
9.1%AU$34.10AU$25.75n/a14
Mar ’25AU$34.04
AU$30.51
-10.4%
9.4%AU$34.10AU$25.75n/a14
Feb ’25AU$31.90
AU$29.36
-8.0%
7.7%AU$32.00AU$25.75n/a14
Jan ’25AU$30.70
AU$28.48
-7.2%
6.7%AU$31.50AU$25.75n/a14
Dec ’24AU$28.43
AU$28.42
-0.04%
6.9%AU$31.50AU$25.75AU$39.1014
Nov ’24AU$28.16
AU$28.87
+2.5%
5.9%AU$31.50AU$26.00AU$38.2114
Oct ’24AU$29.07
AU$28.75
-1.1%
6.4%AU$31.50AU$25.00AU$37.1314
Sep ’24AU$28.90
AU$28.57
-1.2%
6.4%AU$31.50AU$25.00AU$38.1715
Aug ’24AU$28.58
AU$27.73
-3.0%
8.3%AU$31.50AU$23.00AU$38.0515
Jul ’24AU$26.37
AU$27.73
+5.2%
8.4%AU$31.50AU$23.00AU$36.0715
Jun ’24AU$26.04
AU$27.83
+6.9%
8.3%AU$31.50AU$23.00AU$33.9115
May ’24AU$29.19
AU$29.90
+2.4%
10.2%AU$35.00AU$23.00AU$33.7915
Apr ’24AU$27.72
AU$30.56
+10.2%
11.0%AU$35.42AU$23.00AU$34.6415
Mar ’24AU$29.38
AU$31.50
+7.2%
9.2%AU$35.42AU$23.00AU$34.0415
Feb ’24AU$31.73
AU$31.87
+0.4%
8.6%AU$35.60AU$24.00AU$31.9015
Jan ’24AU$30.06
AU$31.83
+5.9%
8.3%AU$35.41AU$24.00AU$30.7015
Dec ’23AU$31.68
AU$31.83
+0.5%
8.3%AU$35.41AU$24.00AU$28.4315

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 21:06
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

National Australia Bank Limited is covered by 34 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brett Le MesurierAxiome Equities
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Craig StaffordBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited