Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its EVN AG (VIE:EVN) Estimates For 2024

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for EVN AG (VIE:EVN), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the latest downgrade, the two analysts covering EVN provided consensus estimates of €3.5b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a chunky 9.2% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to drop 10% to €2.66 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.68 in 2024. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the recent consensus updates, with a substantial drop in revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

View our latest analysis for EVN

The average price target was steady at €36.23 even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 9.2% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 2.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that EVN's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our aggregation of analyst estimates suggests that EVN revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on EVN after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.