VERBUND (WBAG:VER) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of VER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

VER (€104.6) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (€94.01)

VER fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

VER Stock Overview

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 8.47% per year

Earnings grew by 111.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

VERBUND Competitors

EVN

WBAG:EVN

€4.1b

EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg

XTRA:EBK

€27.0b

Xcel Energy

NasdaqGS:XEL

US$42.1b

Eversource Energy

NYSE:ES

US$32.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for VERBUND
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€110.60
52 Week High	€112.40
52 Week Low	€76.85
Beta	1.01
1 Month Change	5.84%
3 Month Change	35.04%
1 Year Change	25.97%
3 Year Change	101.09%
5 Year Change	493.19%
Change since IPO	2,012.96%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 10

Calculating The Fair Value Of VERBUND AG (VIE:VER)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of VERBUND AG ( VIE:VER ) by projecting its future...

Jul 29

Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their VERBUND AG (VIE:VER) Revenue Forecasts By 27%

VERBUND AG ( VIE:VER ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to...

Shareholder Returns

	VER	AT Electric Utilities	AT Market
7D	4.0%	0.8%	0.7%
1Y	26.0%	-3.9%	-7.5%

Return vs Industry: VER exceeded the Austrian Electric Utilities industry which returned -2.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: VER exceeded the Austrian Market which returned -4.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is VER's price volatile compared to industry and market?
VER volatility
VER Average Weekly Movement	4.8%
Electric Utilities Industry Average Movement	4.9%
Market Average Movement	4.8%
10% most volatile stocks in AT Market	7.0%
10% least volatile stocks in AT Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: VER is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Austrian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: VER's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1947	3,435	Michael Strugl	https://www.verbund.com

VERBUND AG, together with its subsidiaries, generates, trades, and sells electricity to energy exchanges, traders, electric utilities and industrial companies, and households and commercial customers in Austria and internationally. It operates through Hydro, New Renewables, Sales, Grid, and All Other segments. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated hydropower plants with a capacity of 8,307 megawatts (MW); wind farms with a capacity of 418 MW; solar farms with a capacity of 3 MW; and thermal power plants with an electrical capacity of 1,013 MW.

VERBUND Fundamentals Summary

How do VERBUND's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
VER fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€38.42b
Earnings (TTM)	€1.37b
Revenue (TTM)	€7.80b

28.1x

P/E Ratio

4.9x

P/S Ratio

Is VER overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
VER income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€7.80b
Cost of Revenue	€5.11b
Gross Profit	€2.69b
Other Expenses	€1.32b
Earnings	€1.37b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 03, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.93
Gross Margin	34.49%
Net Profit Margin	17.53%
Debt/Equity Ratio	60.7%

How did VER perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.9%

Current Dividend Yield

27%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is VER undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VER?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for VER. This is calculated by dividing VER's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is VER's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€38.42b

VER key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	5.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.1x
PEG Ratio	3.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VER's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

VER PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for VER vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.7x
EVN EVN	14.7x	8.4%	€4.1b
EBK EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg	41.7x	n/a	€27.0b
XEL Xcel Energy	25.8x	6.7%	US$42.1b
ES Eversource Energy	24.5x	8.1%	US$32.5b
VER VERBUND	28.1x	8.5%	€38.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the peer average (26.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VER's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Electric Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the European Electric Utilities industry average (11.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VER's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VER PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	28.1x
Fair PE Ratio	27.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VER (€104.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€94.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VER is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is VERBUND forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

8.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VER's forecast earnings growth (8.5% per year) is above the savings rate (0.2%).

Earnings vs Market: VER's earnings (8.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Austrian market (3.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VER's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: VER's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VER's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4.7% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VER's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30%)

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Past Performance

How has VERBUND performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

25.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: VER has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: VER's current net profit margins (17.5%) are lower than last year (18.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: VER's earnings have grown significantly by 25.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: VER's earnings growth over the past year (111.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (25.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: VER earnings growth over the past year (111.6%) exceeded the Electric Utilities industry 5.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: VER's Return on Equity (29.2%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is VERBUND's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: VER's short term assets (€6.0B) do not cover its short term liabilities (€10.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: VER's short term assets (€6.0B) exceed its long term liabilities (€4.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: VER's net debt to equity ratio (36.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: VER's debt to equity ratio has increased from 37% to 60.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: VER's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (18.3%).

Interest Coverage: VER's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (44.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is VERBUND current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.95%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: VER's dividend (0.95%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Austrian market (1.95%).

High Dividend: VER's dividend (0.95%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Austrian market (5.17%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: VER is not paying a notable dividend for the Austrian market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: VER is not paying a notable dividend for the Austrian market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: VER is not paying a notable dividend for the Austrian market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: VER is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Michael Strugl (59 yo)

3.58yrs

Tenure

€1,230,910

Compensation

Dr. Michael Strugl has been Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Executive Board at VERBUND AG since January 1, 2021. Dr. Strugl was the Vice Chairman of the Board at Verbund Ag from January 1, 2019 unt...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Michael's total compensation ($USD1.25M) is below average for companies of similar size in the Austrian market ($USD4.18M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Michael's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: VER's management team is considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: VER's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/17 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31