Results: Erste Group Bank AG Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Explore Erste Group Bank's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

It's been a good week for Erste Group Bank AG (VIE:EBS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-yearly results, and the shares gained 4.3% to €82.00. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €5.7b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Erste Group Bank surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €2.11 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Erste Group Bank's 14 analysts is for revenues of €11.3b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 3.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 6.4% to €7.31 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €11.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.40 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Erste Group Bank

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €78.50. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Erste Group Bank analyst has a price target of €87.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €62.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Erste Group Bank's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Erste Group Bank is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €78.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Erste Group Bank analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Erste Group Bank is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.