Erste Group Bank AG Just Recorded A 8.4% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

A week ago, Erste Group Bank AG (VIE:EBS) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.8% to hit €2.8b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €2.14, some 8.4% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Erste Group Bank

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Erste Group Bank from eleven analysts is for revenues of €10.9b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 2.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 12% to €6.78 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.71 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €57.36, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Erste Group Bank at €68.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €51.61. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Erste Group Bank's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Erste Group Bank's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Erste Group Bank.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Erste Group Bank's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Erste Group Bank. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Erste Group Bank going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Erste Group Bank (1 is a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.