Earnings Beat: Aldar Properties PJSC Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Investors in Aldar Properties PJSC (ADX:ALDAR) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.7% to close at د.إ7.39 following the release of its second-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of د.إ5.3b were what the analysts expected, Aldar Properties PJSC surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of د.إ0.20 per share, an impressive 39% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aldar Properties PJSC

Following the latest results, Aldar Properties PJSC's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of د.إ22.5b in 2024. This would be a substantial 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 17% to د.إ0.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of د.إ21.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of د.إ0.62 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a substantial gain in earnings per share in particular.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 6.8% to د.إ7.14per share. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aldar Properties PJSC at د.إ8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at د.إ6.23. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Aldar Properties PJSC is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Aldar Properties PJSC's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 44% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 19% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aldar Properties PJSC is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Aldar Properties PJSC's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aldar Properties PJSC analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Aldar Properties PJSC's balance sheet, and whether we think Aldar Properties PJSC is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com