Upstart Holdings Zukünftiges Wachstum
Future Kriterienprüfungen 6/6
Upstart Holdings wird ein jährliches Gewinn- und Umsatzwachstum von 58.1% bzw. 24.6% prognostiziert. Der Gewinn pro Aktie wird voraussichtlich wachsen um 55.3% pro Jahr. Die Eigenkapitalrendite wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich 33.4% betragen.
Wichtige Informationen
58.1%
Wachstumsrate der Gewinne
55.33%
EPS-Wachstumsrate
| Consumer Finance Gewinnwachstum | 19.1% |
| Wachstumsrate der Einnahmen | 24.6% |
| Zukünftige Eigenkapitalrendite | 33.39% |
| Analystenabdeckung | Good |
| Zuletzt aktualisiert | 21 May 2026 |
Jüngste Aktualisierungen zum künftigen Wachstum
Recent updates
Narrativ-Update • May 18
UPST: Funding Strains Will Likely Persist Despite Planned Bank Charter Pursuit
Analysts have lowered their price targets on Upstart Holdings by $3 to $15 to reflect reduced assumed revenue growth, a slightly lower discount rate, and a decreased future P/E multiple, while maintaining fair value at around $20 and making modest adjustments to long-term profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Upstart Holdings shows a cluster of price target cuts across several firms, with only a few more supportive voices highlighting potential upside tied to specific catalysts such as the bank application and new product launches.
Narrativ-Update • Apr 30
UPST: Bank Charter Pursuit And GenAI Underwriting Are Expected To Drive Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Upstart Holdings, with fair value estimates moving from about $56.64 to $43.93 as several firms cut targets by $4 to $15 while highlighting mixed views on funding risk, earnings potential, and the impact of the company's bank charter ambitions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Upstart shows a split between analysts who see improving risk and earnings potential and those who remain cautious on funding, macro sensitivity, and valuation.Seeking Alpha • Apr 29
Upstart's Record-Breaking New Product Launch Strengthens My Bullish View
Summary Upstart Holdings, Inc. announced Cash Line, a revolving credit product targeting retail customers, in February. The beta launch was completed two weeks ago. Incoming CEO Paul Gu confirmed on X that Cash Line was off to a great start, becoming the best-ever product launch in the history of the company. I expect Cash Line to deliver high-margin, recurring revenue, with even a 5% payday loan market share translating to meaningful incremental revenue for UPST. In addition to the payday loan market, Cash Line seems well positioned to capture market share from two other lending subsegments as well. A deeper analysis of the TAM for Cash Line reveals Upstart is onto something with Cash Line. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Neues Narrativ • Apr 15
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): The "AI Efficiency" and the Q1 2026 Volume Surge
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) enters the spotlight on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 , with its stock trading near $29.29 USD , marking a notable recovery trend after a volatile start to the year.Narrativ-Update • Apr 15
UPST: Bank Charter Effort Will Likely Fail To Offset Mounting Funding Risks
Analysts have reset the fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings to $20.00 from $40.17, reflecting lower price targets across several firms while still noting possible earnings upside and reduced funding risk tied to the company's bank charter efforts and new product launches. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Upstart reflects a split view, with some firms flagging upside tied to the bank charter effort and new products, while others are trimming price targets and staying cautious on execution and funding.
Narrativ-Update • Apr 01
UPST: Bank Charter Pursuit Will Reset Perceived Credit Cycle Risk
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings from $76.84 to $74.12. This reflects a lower average price target across recent research that factors in mixed rating changes, reduced targets tied to market multiples, and ongoing discussion around funding risk and the potential impact of a bank charter.Narrativ-Update • Mar 18
UPST: Bank Charter And GenAI Underwriting Will Reset Perceived Credit Cycle Risk
Analysts have trimmed the blended price target for Upstart Holdings to reflect a fair value estimate of about $76.84, compared with $80.00 previously, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E in light of recent rating changes and mixed price target moves across the Street. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are starting to frame Upstart as a higher conviction idea for investors who are comfortable with its credit cycle exposure and funding profile.Narrativ-Update • Mar 04
UPST: GenAI Credit Model And New Access Product Will Reprice Risk
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price targets on Upstart Holdings toward the low to mid $30 range, reflecting mixed views that balance the launch of the Cash Line earned wage access product with tempered assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed but more constructive picture for Upstart Holdings, as several firms reassess both rating and valuation in light of new products and updated long term forecasts.Narrativ-Update • Feb 18
UPST: GenAI Underwriting And Rate Easing Are Expected To Reprice Risk
Analysts have nudged their price targets on Upstart higher toward $30, reflecting updated views that its GenAI driven underwriting model and ambitious long term outlook could justify current valuations if execution stays on track. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed but incrementally more constructive picture, with several bullish analysts highlighting how Upstart's GenAI centric underwriting model and long term plans could eventually line up with current valuation levels if management hits its targets.Analyseartikel • Feb 05
Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:UPST) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 25%
The Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPST ) share price has softened a substantial 25% over the previous 30 days...Narrativ-Update • Feb 03
UPST: GenAI Underwriting And Easing Rates Are Expected To Drive Upside
Narrative Update: Upstart Holdings (UPST) The analyst price target for Upstart Holdings has edged higher to about $56.64 from $56.29. Analysts attribute this to its GenAI-centered underwriting model and recent research updates, including a new US$59 target and a revised US$65 target.Narrativ-Update • Jan 20
UPST: GenAI Credit Model And New Partnerships Will Support Share Recovery
Narrative Update: Upstart Holdings Analysts have nudged their implied fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings higher from about US$55.38 to roughly US$56.29 per share, citing Street research that highlights the company's GenAI-focused underwriting model, mixed but closely watched recent results, and updated price targets in the range of US$59 to US$65. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Upstart highlights a split view, with some bullish analysts focusing on the company’s GenAI-driven underwriting model and others stressing its sensitivity to credit conditions and recent mixed quarterly results.Narrativ-Update • Jan 06
UPST: GenAI Underwriting And Easing Rates Will Support Medium-Term Earnings Power
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Upstart Holdings to around $59 to $65 per share. This reflects their view that the company's GenAI driven underwriting model offers material improvements over traditional credit models, while still being closely tied to the credit cycle and interest rate trends.Narrativ-Update • Dec 14
UPST: Improving Margins Will Support Medium-Term Earnings Power Despite Credit Headwinds
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings to $80.00 from $105.00, citing lower expected revenue growth, a higher discount rate, and concerns about rising delinquencies that have led to Street price target cuts, even as profit margin expectations improve. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Upstart Holdings reflects a nuanced but increasingly constructive stance among bullish analysts, who argue that the pullback in the stock has created a more attractive risk reward profile despite near term macro and credit headwinds.Analyseartikel • Dec 11
Optimistic Investors Push Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) Shares Up 25% But Growth Is Lacking
Those holding Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPST ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 25% in...Narrativ-Update • Nov 29
UPST: Continued Partnerships Will Drive Share Recovery Despite Delinquency Concerns
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Upstart Holdings, now expecting shares to reach approximately $65. They cite a mixed quarterly report along with increasing delinquencies seen in recent loan performance data.Narrativ-Update • Nov 15
UPST: Mixed Financials Will Be Offset By Expanding Personal Loan Partnerships
Upstart Holdings’ analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $75 to $55. Analysts cite mixed quarterly results and rising delinquency trends as key factors in the reassessment.Narrativ-Update • Nov 01
UPST: Raised Guidance And Credit Union Partnerships Will Drive Momentum Ahead
The consensus analyst price target for Upstart Holdings has been slightly decreased by less than $1 as analysts weigh accelerating delinquencies in older loan vintages against a recent quarterly beat and raised guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research presents a mixed outlook for Upstart Holdings, reflecting both optimism and caution among analysts as they assess the company's latest financial results and developing loan trends.Narrativ-Update • Oct 18
Model 19 And HELOC Expansion Will Strengthen Underwriting And Funding
Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings from $79.54 to $75.46. They cite concerns over increasing delinquency rates in older loan vintages, as well as a slight adjustment in projected revenue growth and discount rate metrics.Narrativ-Update • Oct 04
Model 19 And HELOC Expansion Will Strengthen Underwriting And Funding
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings from approximately $80.85 to $79.54. They cite concerns about rising delinquencies in recent loan vintages and possible risks to future transaction volume.Analyseartikel • Sep 30
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 28% Price Plummet
The Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPST ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a...Narrativ-Update • Aug 07
Model 19 And HELOC Expansion Will Strengthen Underwriting And Funding
Despite a reduction in consensus revenue growth forecasts, a notable improvement in net profit margin has driven the consensus analyst price target for Upstart Holdings up from $67.36 to $76.86. What's in the News Upstart provided Q3 2025 guidance of $280 million revenue with a GAAP net loss of $9 million; full-year 2025 guidance is $1.055 billion revenue and $35 million GAAP net income.Analyseartikel • Jul 08
Investors Appear Satisfied With Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:UPST) Prospects As Shares Rocket 41%
Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPST ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 41% gain in the last month...Analyseartikel • May 04
Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:UPST) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 44% Share Price Bounce
Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPST ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 44% in...Seeking Alpha • Apr 30
Upstart: Revisiting The Bull Case Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainties
Summary After investing in Upstart stock in early 2021, I enjoyed the stellar stock market rally that pushed the stock over $400 before it crashed to just $15. 2024 marked a strong year for Upstart as the company made notable progress on the back of interest rate stability and AI model enhancements. New features introduced by Model 19 should help Upstart achieve consistent model calibration in addition to better risk separation. As discussed in this analysis, UPST needs to tick three boxes to ensure long-term growth. Encouragingly, the company has made progress on all these fronts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 28
Upstart: One Meme Stock Worth Buying Amidst The Chaos (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Upstart has shown strong execution, with improved underwriting algorithms boosting top-line growth. The company has seen revenue growth accelerate and management expects further acceleration into 2025. This acceleration in growth is expected to coincide with a return to GAAP profitability. I am upgrading my rating to buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Neues Narrativ • Mar 20
Model 19 And HELOC Expansion Will Strengthen Underwriting And Funding
Improvements in underwriting, automation, and personalization enhance loan approval rates, lower costs, and reduce default risks, positively impacting revenue and net margins.Analyseartikel • Mar 11
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) Shares Slammed 31% But Getting In Cheap Might Be Difficult Regardless
Upstart Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPST ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow...Seeking Alpha • Feb 25
Upstart: You Have Seen Nothing Yet
Summary Upstart Holdings reported a surprising Q4 profit, driven by strong private credit demand and a robust U.S. economy, leading to an upside stock breakout. The fintech anticipates GAAP profitability in 2025, with sales expected to jump 57% YoY to $1.0 billion, supported by lower interest rates. Upstart Holdings' adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to improve from 2% in 2024 to 18% in 2025, reflecting substantial profit growth potential. Despite a high valuation, Upstart Holdings' stock remains compelling due to its strong profit growth outlook and potential benefits from future rate cuts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaGewinn- und Umsatzwachstumsprognosen
| Datum | Umsatz | Gewinne | Freier Cashflow | Bargeld aus operativen Tätigkeiten | Durchschn. Anz. Analysten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 2,335 | 361 | N/A | 458 | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,853 | 213 | 180 | 215 | 14 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,410 | 109 | 74 | 359 | 14 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,174 | 49 | -287 | -268 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,076 | 54 | -166 | -148 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 998 | 32 | -385 | -367 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 885 | -6 | -82 | -65 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 759 | -66 | 114 | 129 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 677 | -129 | 176 | 186 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 605 | -168 | 143 | 152 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 576 | -202 | -144 | -135 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 577 | -175 | 0 | 8 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 548 | -240 | -124 | -112 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 546 | -253 | -234 | -219 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 562 | -269 | -231 | -213 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 652 | -271 | -507 | -484 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 853 | -109 | -681 | -658 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,007 | 6 | -457 | -433 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,076 | 91 | -311 | -288 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 1,041 | 158 | -161 | -142 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 852 | 135 | 153 | 168 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 634 | 76 | 237 | 248 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 472 | 49 | 215 | 222 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 297 | 9 | 140 | 145 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 241 | N/A | 10 | 16 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 221 | 6 | -51 | -42 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 191 | 0 | N/A | 32 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 126 | -12 | N/A | 50 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 67 | -8 | N/A | 10 | N/A |
Analystenprognosen zum zukünftigen Wachstum
Einkommen vs. Sparrate: UPSTDas prognostizierte Gewinnwachstum (58.1% pro Jahr) liegt über der Sparquote (3.5%).
Ertrag vs. Markt: UPSTDie Erträge des Unternehmens (58.1% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich schneller wachsen als der Markt US (16.7% pro Jahr).
Hohe Wachstumserträge: UPSTEs wird erwartet, dass die Erträge des Unternehmens in den nächsten 3 Jahren erheblich steigen werden.
Einnahmen vs. Markt: UPSTDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (24.6% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich schneller wachsen als der Markt US (11.7% pro Jahr).
Hohe Wachstumseinnahmen: UPSTDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (24.6% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich schneller wachsen als 20% pro Jahr.
Wachstumsprognosen für den Gewinn je Aktie
Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite
Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite: UPSTDie Eigenkapitalrendite des Unternehmens wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich hoch sein (33.4%)
Wachstumsunternehmen entdecken
Unternehmensanalyse und Finanzdaten Status
| Daten | Zuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit) |
|---|---|
| Unternehmensanalyse | 2026/05/21 14:12 |
| Aktienkurs zum Tagesende | 2026/05/21 00:00 |
| Gewinne | 2026/03/31 |
| Jährliche Einnahmen | 2025/12/31 |
Datenquellen
Die in unserer Unternehmensanalyse verwendeten Daten stammen von S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Die folgenden Daten werden in unserem Analysemodell verwendet, um diesen Bericht zu erstellen. Die Daten sind normalisiert, was zu einer Verzögerung bei der Verfügbarkeit der Quelle führen kann.
| Paket | Daten | Zeitrahmen | Beispiel US-Quelle * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finanzdaten des Unternehmens | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Konsensschätzungen der Analysten | +3 Jahre |
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| Marktpreise | 30 Jahre |
| |
| Eigentümerschaft | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Verwaltung | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Wichtige Entwicklungen | 10 Jahre |
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* Beispiel für US-Wertpapiere, für nicht-US-amerikanische Wertpapiere werden gleichwertige regulatorische Formulare und Quellen verwendet.
Sofern nicht anders angegeben, beziehen sich alle Finanzdaten auf einen Jahreszeitraum, werden aber vierteljährlich aktualisiert. Dies wird als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) oder Last Twelve Month (LTM) Daten bezeichnet. Erfahren Sie mehr.
Analysemodell und Schneeflocke
Einzelheiten zu dem Analysemodell, mit dem dieser Bericht erstellt wurde, finden Sie auf unserer Github-Seite. Außerdem bieten wir Leitfäden zur Verwendung unserer Berichte und Tutorials auf YouTube an.
Erfahren Sie mehr über das Weltklasse-Team, das das Simply Wall St-Analysemodell entworfen und entwickelt hat.
Metriken für Industrie und Sektor
Unsere Branchen- und Sektionskennzahlen werden alle 6 Stunden von Simply Wall St berechnet. Details zu unserem Verfahren finden Sie auf Github.
Analysten-Quellen
Upstart Holdings, Inc. wird von 17 Analysten beobachtet. 14 dieser Analysten hat die Umsatz- oder Gewinnschätzungen übermittelt, die als Grundlage für unseren Bericht dienen. Die von den Analysten übermittelten Daten werden im Laufe des Tages aktualisiert.
| Analyst | Einrichtung |
|---|---|
| Ramsey El-Assal | Barclays |
| Mihir Bhatia | BofA Global Research |
| Harold Goetsch | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |