UPST: Mixed Financials Will Be Offset By Expanding Personal Loan Partnerships

Upstart Holdings’ analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $75 to $55. Analysts cite mixed quarterly results and rising delinquency trends as key factors in the reassessment.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts provided mixed commentary on Upstart Holdings’ performance and outlook in light of the recent price target revisions and operating results. Their assessments highlighted both supportive factors and areas of elevated concern for the company’s future.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts maintain positive long-term ratings despite reducing price targets. This suggests continued confidence in Upstart's underlying technology and business model.
• Some analysts believe that the company’s recent earnings report, while mixed, still contains elements that support potential growth and execution improvements over the next few quarters.
• The firm’s ability to secure an Overweight rating from a major brokerage points to perceived resilience in Upstart’s competitive positioning within the lending technology market.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts were openly surprised by the acceleration in delinquency rates observed in recent months, especially in older loan vintages. This raises questions about portfolio quality.
• Concerns remain about the potential for consensus transaction volume estimates to be overstated, given current credit trends and broader asset class challenges.
• Persistently high delinquency levels, even if not unique to Upstart’s underwriting, may pressure the company's growth prospects and lead some analysts to adopt a more cautious outlook on valuation.
• Mixed quarterly results continue to weigh on sentiment and underscore uncertainty in Upstart’s execution and near-term growth trajectory.

What's in the News

• Pathward Financial, Inc. has partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans through Upstart's lending marketplace, expanding access to innovative financial products and promoting inclusion. (Client Announcements)
• Upstart Holdings provided guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, projecting quarterly revenue of approximately $288 million and full-year revenue of $1.035 billion, with expected GAAP net income of $17 million for the quarter and $50 million for the year. (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed)
• Peak Credit Union joined the Upstart Referral Network, granting more consumers access to personal loans and offering a streamlined, branded lending experience for qualified applicants. (Client Announcements)
• Corporate America Family Credit Union partnered with Upstart to provide personal loans, HELOCs, and auto refinance loans, and began purchasing home equity lines of credit portfolios from Upstart's affiliate. (Client Announcements)
• Cornerstone Community Financial Credit Union began lending as an Upstart Referral Network partner to deliver more inclusive personal loan options to consumers. (Client Announcements)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value): Decreased significantly from $74.69 to $55.38. This reflects more cautious expectations for share performance.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.75% to 9.08%. This indicates a higher perceived risk profile for Upstart Holdings.
• Revenue Growth: Lowered from 27.01% to 19.62%. This implies that analysts now expect slower expansion in upcoming periods.
• Net Profit Margin: Reduced from 18.74% to 16.55%. This suggests a modest decrease in profitability projections.
• Future P/E Ratio: Declined from 31.67x to 29.76x. This signals a tempered view toward future earnings multiples.