The consensus analyst price target for Upstart Holdings has been slightly decreased by less than $1 as analysts weigh accelerating delinquencies in older loan vintages against a recent quarterly beat and raised guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research presents a mixed outlook for Upstart Holdings, reflecting both optimism and caution among analysts as they assess the company's latest financial results and developing loan trends.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts are encouraged by Upstart's latest quarterly beat and the upward revision to company guidance. Many view these as indicators of solid execution and momentum.
• Upgrades in price targets suggest renewed confidence in future growth potential. The firm continues to report resilient earnings despite short-term market volatility.
• Analysts point to the company's ability to deliver above-consensus results in a challenging macro environment, highlighting operational flexibility and adaptability.
• The long-term view remains constructive, with supportive commentary around Upstart's potential to outperform as lending conditions normalize.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some analysts remain guarded due to accelerating delinquencies in Upstart's older loan vintages, raising concerns about credit quality and future earnings stability.
• There is skepticism about whether the company's underwriting model is sufficiently robust. Comparisons are drawn to rising delinquency trends across similar asset classes such as auto lending.
• Cautious analysts highlight that consensus transaction volume estimates may be too optimistic, given the ongoing deterioration in legacy portfolios.
• Despite positive earnings surprises, conservative ratings reflect uncertainty around the sustainability of near-term growth and the reliability of the current credit environment.

What's in the News

• Corporate America Family Credit Union partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans, HELOCs, and auto refinance loans. Lending as a network partner will begin in September 2025, with plans to expand product offerings this year. (Client Announcements)
• Cornerstone Community Financial Credit Union announced its partnership with Upstart to provide smarter, more inclusive personal loan options. The credit union will join the Upstart Referral Network in April 2025. (Client Announcements)
• ABNB Federal Credit Union began offering personal loans through Upstart's Referral Network as of May 2025, streamlining the membership and loan process online. (Client Announcements)
• Peak Credit Union expanded its partnership with Upstart. It initially joined the Referral Network in November 2022 to offer more consumers access to personal loans. (Client Announcements)
• Upstart Holdings provided new earnings guidance for Q3 and the full year 2025, forecasting $280 million in quarterly revenue and $1.055 billion in annual revenue. The company expects GAAP Net Income of $35 million for the year. (Corporate Guidance New/Confirmed)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has declined slightly from $75.46 to $74.69.
• Discount Rate has risen modestly, increasing from 8.58% to 8.75%.
• Revenue Growth projection remains nearly unchanged at around 27.01%.
• Net Profit Margin is essentially flat, staying at approximately 18.74%.
• Future P/E Ratio has dropped marginally from 31.85x to 31.67x.