Update shared on18 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.13%Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Upstart Holdings from $79.54 to $75.46. They cite concerns over increasing delinquency rates in older loan vintages, as well as a slight adjustment in projected revenue growth and discount rate metrics.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports highlight a range of perspectives on Upstart Holdings, reflecting both confidence in certain aspects of the company's performance and caution regarding emerging trends in loan performance and projected growth.
Bullish Takeaways- Some bullish analysts view the company’s recent quarterly results as surpassing expectations, with positive momentum in revenue and earnings performance.
- Upward revisions of price targets indicate optimism about Upstart’s ability to execute on its growth objectives, even amid industry challenges.
- Encouragement is drawn from the Q2 beat and raise. This suggests that the underlying business model can deliver resilience in changing credit environments.
- Support is seen for an Overweight stance, which reflects a belief in long-term value creation and an expanding addressable market.
- Bearish analysts express concern about rising delinquency rates, particularly among older loan vintages. This could weigh on future transaction volumes.
- There is a growing view that consensus transaction volume estimates might be too optimistic given recent credit performance.
- Recent data from securitizations shows accelerating delinquencies. This reinforces caution around underwriting quality and portfolio risk.
- Questions remain about the sustainability of recent growth rates, especially if macro conditions or consumer finances weaken further.
What's in the News
- Corporate America Family Credit Union has joined the Upstart Referral Network and has been offering personal loans since September 2025, with plans to expand into HELOCs and auto refinance loans. CAFCU is also acquiring HELOC portfolios from Upstart Mortgage. (Key Developments)
- Cornerstone Community Financial Credit Union partnered with Upstart in April 2025 to provide more inclusive personal loan options through the Upstart Referral Network. (Key Developments)
- ABNB Federal Credit Union began lending as a partner on the Upstart Referral Network in May 2025, offering a streamlined digital loan experience for members. (Key Developments)
- Upstart Holdings has completed the repurchase of 5,884,000 shares, accounting for 7.04% of shares for $177.95 million under its buyback program. No shares were repurchased during the most recent quarter. (Key Developments)
- For Q3 2025, Upstart anticipates revenue of around $280 million and a GAAP net loss of about $9 million. Full-year 2025 guidance projects revenue of $1.055 billion and GAAP net income of approximately $35 million. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Lowered from $79.54 to $75.46, reflecting a modest decrease in analysts' valuation of Upstart Holdings.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.50% to 8.58%, indicating a higher perceived risk or required return for the company's stock.
- Revenue Growth: Slightly reduced from 27.21% to 27.01% in projected annual growth rates.
- Net Profit Margin: Marginally increased from 18.52% to 18.74%, suggesting improved profitability expectations.
- Future P/E Ratio: Decreased from 33.74x to 31.85x, implying a lower expected valuation multiple on future earnings.
Disclaimer
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